The Russian official told the visitor, "Russia is not fond of the Syrian regime. Russia is defending its security and interests, and the stability of the Middle East. The issue goes beyond naval cooperation, weapons deals, or spiting the Americans. Syria is not very far from us, and if it should fall into the hands of the jihadists, this wave will spread to another place. Neither can the Middle East afford the emergence of a Libya-like situation in Syria, nor can we afford it. For this reason, we did not allow for the ‘Western trick' that took place in Libya to be repeated in the Security Council. China's calculations are not very far from our own too." The visitor then remarked that the ‘Islamic thread' is crucial to understanding Russia's position in Syria. Moscow's position was confusing for those who visited it, trying to persuade it to change its position. Moscow did not respond to their advice and was not interested in the incentives they offered. The game of chemical weapons confirmed the hardness of the Russian position. It turned the course of the conflict on its head. Moscow succeeded in advancing the issue of Syrian chemical weapons to overshadow the issue of the crisis itself. It played a card that concerns Israel and the United States, and the Obama administration seemed very interested in unshackling itself from the commitments and threats it had made, agreeing to engage in the game of the president who came from the KGB. Many say that Moscow knows very well who used the chemical weapons. But if Moscow admitted the regime had been responsible, it would have had to agree to an international resolution that sanctions a military strike against Damascus. For this reason, Lavrov was very clear with Walid al-Moallem: "The strike is coming and to avoid it, you must hand over the chemical weapons." Syria had no choice but to agree. After the chemical maneuver, observers found another explanation for the Russian inflexibility in protecting the Syrian regime. They say that there is something more important that the naval base on the Mediterranean and Russia's presence in the Arab-Israeli conflict. They also say that the Russian security-military establishment has given a priority to the war on jihadists, believing the carnage unfolding in Syria to be an opportunity to defeat the jihadist wave that was helped by the ‘Arab Spring' in infiltrating and establishing bases in a number of countries. The proponents of this view say that the most important achievement of Vladimir Putin that solidified his leadership was that he prevented the collapse of the Russian Federation. They note that more than 20 million Muslims currently live in the Russian Federation, not to mention its backyard in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. These observers also note that five autonomous republics have overwhelming Muslim majorities, in addition to the republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan in central Russia. If we take into account the circumstances and the turmoil in Chechnya and Dagestan, we can talk about the Islamic dimension in Putin's policy, especially with mounting fears of a return of the Taliban to power in Kabul after the U.S. withdrawal. It is perhaps for this reason that the Kremlin is dealing with Syria as though it is a backyard where battles will decide the future of the wave of marauding militants. Russia, which fears the spread of the Spring of Jihadists to its territory, prefers to fight them in Syria. "Fighting them there is easier and cheaper." Defeating the wave of jihadists on Syrian territory will leave its marks on more than one place. Russia can exhaust them without sending a single soldier. They are being fought by the Syrian regular army, backed by Hezbollah and another pro-Iranian militia. For this reason, Russian officials talk about the shortsightedness of the West and cite what happened in Libya. Bogging down the jihadists in Syria will preoccupy them away from the Caucasus. And who knows, Moscow might succeed later, perhaps through Geneva 2, in giving the issue of confronting the jihadists and al-Qaeda in Syria precedence over any other Syrian matter. This explains the bitterness and disappointment in the moderate Syrian opposition, and explains the new behavior of the armed factions. Russia runs this policy while maintaining an excellent relationship with Israel, an alliance with Iran, and even considering Turkey "an important trade and economic ally." With a confused administration in America, Putin seems to be preparing to fight a broad confrontation with al-Qaeda and its ilk, to defend Russia, and not Syria.
