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Legitimate Fears about Obama's Position on Syria
Published in AL HAYAT on 19 - 09 - 2013

The Russian-American agreement that took place in Geneva proved that the Russians and the Syrian regime acknowledged that on 21 August, Bashar al-Assad and his gang used chemical weapons against his people. This is why the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, proposed to his American counterpart, John Kerry, that Syria's chemical weapons would be put under international monitoring, and then destroyed.
The agreement frightened some into thinking that a deal had been made between the two sides, to return to cooperation with the Syrian regime. However, Kerry's remarks during a news conference with his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius and his British counterpart, William Hague, were clear: "Assad has lost all legitimacy to be possible to govern this country." Also, that imposing the necessity of opening chemical sites to international monitoring by the Syrian regime was also a realization by the Russians that Assad cannot continue, and that Russia's stance in these negotiations with the Americans is for Putin's Russia to recover its role in the international arena.
There are fears that Kerry agreed with Lavrov on saving the Assad regime internationally, and these fears are legitimate. Obama's stance has been hesitant, weak and confused; he contacted his French ally, Fabius, and agreed with him that they would launch a military strike against Syria. Then, he contacted him the following day and retreated, saying that he would ask for congressional approval. Then, the vote was postponed to give Kerry's diplomacy with Lavrov a chance. Obama's hesitation and changes to his policy embarrassed the French president, whose stance has been firm and consistent on punishing Assad for using chemical weapons.
The confusion that Obama created by changing his mind and vacillating has also led to fears that he will change his mind and become bored with Syria, and allowing the current regime in Syria to play a role. However, all of the information indicates the opposite. Those familiar with the issue in the west are convinced that the Obama administration will not bargain over the fate of Assad. Those who are skeptical about Obama's position say that he might have reached a deal with the Russians that would retain Assad until the presidential elections in 2014, with Assad not running. Thus, he will exit the political game in Syria without being punished, and will be protected by Russia.
While this is not what emerged from Kerry's discussions in the French capital, who can predict whether the position of the American president will evolve? No one trusts the firmness of this stance, because of all the hesitation and retreat. Obama is now concerned with dialogue with the Iranians, and is exchanging messages with the Iranian president, saying that he is concerned with solving the Iranian nuclear issue without a US-Israeli military strike. Iran is an active partner with Syria on the ground. The Republican Guard and its Lebanese agent, Hezbollah, are fighting alongside the Syrian regime to protect it, since it is a negotiating card held by Iran. Tehran must use it when dialogue actually begins with the United States, just as the Syrian regime used to do constantly with the west, in using the cards of Lebanon, and Hezbollah.
During this critical phase of international negotiations to issue a Security Council resolution on Syria's use of chemical weapons, there are legitimate fears about Obama's policy, and it is hoped that Arab states will speak openly about these fears. The coming days will show whether the US stance will be one of abandonment and retreat before Russia, or whether the resolution will be issued under Chapter Seven of the UN, which will require immediate enforcement. However, it is very unfortunate that all of this will give more time for Assad to continue killing his people and making them choose between the regime's survival, and chaos and extremism.
This is the policy that he has been following, and the trap he has set for a west that is afraid of extremism.


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