The election of Hassan Rohani as the new Iranian president has spurred hope in the Arab world and beyond. This is because everyone wishes to end the confrontation between Iran and its neighbors, namely in the Gulf, in addition to Iran's part in the Syrian crisis in support of the Bashar al-Assad regime. The West on its part wishes to reach a settlement in the matter of the nuclear file that would allow to end the crisis between both sides and avoid a potential armed confrontation. However, if they are not based on real foundations, high hopes often lead to disappointment, as the Arabs and the world discovered with President Mohammad Khatami, who was faced with Khamenei's iron fist. Therefore, one must look into how realistic the hopes for Hassan Rohani are, and the extent of change that he can induce in the Islamic Republic's course. Rohani comes from the Iranian religious institution. In this sense, he has no major reservations concerning this institution's actions, its aggressive attitude towards the opposition, and its foreign policies. For instance, Rohani maintained complete silence vis-à-vis the oppression of the Green Revolution in Iran back in 2009. That revolution broke following the rigged elections that brought Ahmadinejad back to power. Yesterday, Rohani abruptly ended his press conference when one of the participants demanded the release of the candidate who had lost those elections, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, and who is placed under house arrest – knowing that Rohani had promised during his electoral campaign to work on releasing all political prisoners. Moreover, Rohani did not hesitate to consider that the latest elections that brought him to power constitute "a great epic that will attract the world's respect for the Iranian people." He also expressed his "gratitude for the Supreme Leader" and considered that he is his "younger son." This "great epic" that Rohani is so proud of consists of the elections that Hashemi Rafsanjani was not allowed to run for under the pretext that he is not qualified. Iran might very well be the only country in history where the man who is entrusted with the "regime's interests" is not qualified for running for president. This pushed Rafsanjani to accuse the Iranian leaders of being ignorant. He said: I do not think that Iran could have been run in a worse manner! Rohani did have some positive initiatives to improve the relations with the Gulf States when he served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in the 1990s. However, these initiatives quickly collapsed and turned out to be unserious thanks to the role played by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in supporting the armed cells that committed terrorist actions in a number of the Gulf countries. As for the nuclear issue, Rohani's first statement in this regard during his press conference yesterday was quite surprising. Indeed, he repeated Ahmadinejad's positions and said that the "era" of the western demands for halting the uranium enrichment "is gone." He also called on the United States to acknowledge Iran's rights, "mainly the nuclear rights." He added that the sanctions imposed on his country over its nuclear program "are unfair and unjustified." The ruling institution in Iran represented by the Supreme Guide and the Revolutionary Guards allowed Hassan Rohani, the candidate of the "reformists," to win in order to avoid the same reactions seen against the forgery process during the former elections and also to give the impression that the Iranian regime is strong and capable of absorbing the "opposition" voices. This is the reason why Khamanei praised the latest elections and considered that they represent "a vote in favor of the Islamic Republic and a vote of confidence for the regime." The Iranian institution knows Rohani and his limits, especially when it comes to making important decisions concerning the foreign politics and the nuclear issue. These boundaries are the reason why Mohammad Khatami was hesitant to run for presidency again. He realized that changing presidents in Iran is useless as long as the main powers are in the hands of someone else. Iran's actual leaders were "smart" enough to stage the latest elections' trick and to convince us of respecting their "democracy." However, we must also be smart enough not to fall for this trick. We must not believe the illusion of change in the Iranian politics before seeing real proofs of that change. Pending that, everything we now see indicates that the Iranian leaders are nothing more than the echo of Khamenei's wishes. As for those who oppose him, they are either confined to their houses or in jail.
