Hassan Rohani, the Iranian president-elect, did well to choose a key as the symbol of his campaign, as all doors had been shut tight, with no solution to the impasse in the horizon. Perhaps Rohani intended, from the key, to relight the flame of hope among young Iranians, who no longer passionately buy into the slogans of the Islamic revolution and its denunciations against ‘Great Satan.' But in writing about Iran, one must be extremely cautious. The carpet of Iranian democracy is woven carefully under the mantle of the Supreme Leader. Its intricately woven fabric does not allow Western and ‘toxic' threads to creep in. The institutions of the Islamic Republic allow for differences over the details but not over the essence. The crackdown on the Green Revolution was merciless. Iran aborted its Spring before its winds blew elsewhere and uprooted other regimes. Hassan Rohani is the legitimate son of the Iranian revolution. He joined Khomeini, who was preparing to return to his country and topple the Shah's regime. He toured the corridors of the Islamic Republic, its parliament, official councils, army affairs, the media, and national security. He forged a strong relationship with Hashemi Rafsanjani and won the confidence of Mohammad Khatami, who chose him to lead the negotiations with the West over the nuclear program. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tenure was long and costly. True, it achieved ‘conquests' in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. But it is also true that it ended in dire consequences: Sanctions crippling the Iranian economy; the deteriorating value of the currency; rising unemployment; a sharper confrontation with foes; and increased isolation. Because Rohani is a regime veteran, he knows that the president is not the maker of policies, especially when it comes to the nuclear program and foreign policy. In the major issues, things are very clear: The key lies in the Supreme Leader's drawers. The economic situation in Iran does not need further explanation, and the figures are everywhere on the internet. The tension with the West is plain. The entanglement in Syria is very costly. Iran must no doubt be pumping massive amounts of money to allow the regime in Damascus to continue the war. Hezbollah's involvement in the battle also increases its political and economic costs. Iran seems to be like someone driven to a life-or-death battle. It is as though Iran is gambling all the political credit that it has. This is no exaggeration: Its isolation in the region is clear. The worsening Sunni-Shia strife threatens to lead to high walls, and more walls around those. Some believe that Iran has expanded beyond its economy's ability to withstand this, and that Iran is now making the same mistakes the Soviet Union once made. So the victory of a president being described as a moderate and a realist will no doubt help improve the image of a regime that has suffered heavy damage due to its involvement in the ongoing war in Syria. Rohani knows it. And he knows what the regime did to Khatami, and Rafsanjani. But the situation today is more difficult and dangerous. It never happened before that Iran was this much isolated. Continuing its current policies will subject it to a myriad security, political, and economic dangers. Its failure to make true on its previous pledges will truly be like drinking a poisoned cup or worse. In light of this bleak picture, Hassan Rohani raised a key as his symbol. He fought and won the battle. The purple color of his campaign won in the first round. His statements to Iranian television confirm his intentions. He considered his victory "a triumph for wisdom, moderation, development, and awareness, over extremism and zealousness." He spoke of hope and new opportunities. But his litmus test will not take long to materialize. Is it true that the Iranian president has the right to brandish this key, or is the president merely the chief of staff of the Supreme Leader's office? Has the Supreme Leader accepted the fact that the regime needs to open a window, or will the hardliners be quick to remind Rohani that the doors can only be opened using the Supreme Leader's key? We will need to wait to see Rohani's style, the story behind the key, and the new demarcation lines between the reformists and moderates on the one hand, and the hardliners and the establishment's guard on the other. But the clouds gathering in the region's skies may not allow Rohani the luxury to quietly look for the key, or the opportunity to use his mandate. Indeed, we may wake one day to the crackle of one great blaze.
