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Egyptian Coalitions
Published in AL HAYAT on 24 - 09 - 2012

The ruling issued by the Supreme Administrative Court in Egypt two days ago put an end to the debate over the fate of the People's Assembly, confirming the dissolution of the Parliament under the law, and showing that the predictions of some of leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood about the imminent return of Parliament consisted of mere wishes rather than information. More importantly, the ruling has placed all of Egypt's political forces, including Islamist forces, before a challenge different from that which they had faced in the previous parliamentary elections, which took place under the rule of the Military Council, and the outcome of which had led to the Islamists achieving parliamentary majority, before also winning the seat of the Presidency and the government cabinet. It is evident that the Egyptian people will only accept parliamentary elections that would be fair and measures that would ensure equal opportunities to compete for all political forces, especially as the elections that were held under the rule of the military had met with overall approval, and had not witnessed violations that would have affected their results, despite talk at the time of the Military Council wanting this or that party to win. It is therefore only natural for the first elections held under the first elected civilian President to fulfill all the conditions required to ensure their soundness. It is true that the people are more preoccupied with seeking after their daily bread, looking after their livelihood issues and solving their problems and dilemmas, which have increased after the Revolution. Equally true is the fact that people's trust in the elite has been strongly shaken, as they watched prominent figures of the elite from across the political spectrum fighting for power without fulfilling the slogans raised by the Revolution. It is also true that the referendum on the constitution will precede the parliamentary elections and that its results will reflect, to a certain extent, the balance of power, amid expectations that Islamist force will head towards urging people to approve it, while secular forces will adopt the opposite stance. Yet it is widely believed that the people too will be counting on the new parliament, not just to return the legislative process – which is today in the hands of the President – to the elected legislative branch of government, but also to exert constant pressure on the executive branch (the President and the government cabinet) in order to obtain its rights to a decent life, after it has appeared in the wake of the military's departure that the problems are tremendous and exceed the ability of the President and of the ruling party (the FJP – Freedom and Justice Party) to get rid of them in a short period of time – and after it has appeared that the absence of the Parliament for several months has made certain segments of society resort to solving their own problems in the manner they see fit. Thus, special interest demonstrations and protests have multiplied, labor strikes have spread, and protests against the low rate of wages have proliferated – in addition to the high rate of unemployment and the poorness of services remaining as they had been. The President himself is in need of a trustworthy Parliament to inform it first and foremost of his program to lift the country out of its predicament, just as the people are in need of MPs who would monitor the executive with integrity and would inform voters of the steps taken to rebuild the state on sound bases – so as for every decision issued not to be interpreted as abiding by the demands of the Muslim Brotherhood's Guidance Bureau, or for the appointment of this or that official not to be explained as “Brotherhoodization" of the state. Doubtless the political spectrum in Egypt has witnessed explosive changes over the recent period, especially when it comes to secular forces, among which have emerged major coalitions – such as the Popular Movement led by former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, along with Leftist and Nasserist forces and some Liberal parties and forces that cling to the social responsibility of the state; the Conference Movement led by another former presidential candidate, Amr Moussa, and comprising Liberal forces in addition to some businessmen and prominent families from Upper Egypt and the Nile Delta; the National Movement led by former presidential candidate Air Marshal Ahmed Shafik, which includes his supporters in the elections and some of those affiliated with the former regime; and finally the Constitution Party led by Doctor Mohamed El-Baradei. On the other hand, there are the Islamist forces, which include the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists, in addition to independent Islamist groups, such as the Al-Wasat Party and the Strong Egypt Party led by former presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.
The outcome of the next parliamentary elections will be contingent on the extent to which the elements of each camp will be coordinating amongst themselves. Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood is now in greater need of an alliance with the Salafists, while, on the other hand, efforts to unite secular forces in a single bloc are still not being met with success, despite the emergence of the aforementioned coalitions – knowing that no faction among them could alone stand up to the presence of the Islamists in the Egyptian street and to their tremendous experience at playing the electoral game. There is still some time, and the people are in need of reassuring messages from both sides – messages that would include specific programs for solving their problems – or else their choice will not be to favor one side over the other, but rather to turn against them both, if it becomes apparent that their rights remain in the realm of dreams.

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