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Israeli Presence and Arab Absence
Published in AL HAYAT on 26 - 05 - 2012

Israel was absent yet ever present at the negotiations in Baghdad over the Iranian nuclear issue. It left no means of pressuring its allies unused, and placed conditions for the agreement as if it were the only one concerned with this issue – among them, as Netanyahu declared, putting a stop to uranium enrichment inside of Iran, dismantling the nuclear facility in Qom and keeping all other facilities under constant observation, because “Iran is fooling the West, and nothing will deter it from moving forward with its military nuclear program". Israel also rejected the suggestions of “a step for a step", i.e. for Iran to backtrack on its stance in exchange for the sanctions imposed on it being lifted gradually.
Israel realizes that negotiations between Iran and the West are not limited to the nuclear issue alone, but rather go beyond it to its standing in the Middle East. It also realizes that reaching an agreement over this issue would mean, among other things, the West's acceptance of the fact that the Islamic Republic would have ensured for itself to turn into a regional superpower, one with a say in drafting the political map of the region stretching from the Arab Gulf to Lebanon, through Iraq and Syria.
The Hebrew state is standing up to Iran's influence, threatening to strike against its nuclear facilities, and never missing an opportunity to remind everyone of its ability to carry out this threat. Thus European negotiators adopt its proposals, i.e. everyone speak in its name, and that is no exaggeration.
In parallel to this, the Arabs find no one to represent them in the negotiations. They are the absented absentees, and it would have been better for them to be represented by a delegate appointed by the Arab League. Indeed, their concern about Iran turning into a regional superpower is no lesser than that of the Israelis. Such concern manifests itself in various forms: a struggle over influence in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, as well as an arms race. In Lebanon such a struggle takes shape between Hezbollah, along with some Christian allies, on the one hand, and the Future Movement, along with some Christians as well, on the other. In Iraq it is embodied in the struggle between Shiite political parties, along with a few clans, and Sunni political parties, along with a few clans as well, on the other.
Both countries, Iraq and Lebanon, are exposed to a return of civil war. There are many indications of this, from Iraqi provinces threatening to secede from Baghdad to Lebanese sects threatening to form their own armies opposite Hezbollah's armed fighters, up to security unrest in the street, especially in the North and in the Beqaa near the border with Syria, and to political chaos in state institutions.
Of course one must not forget the concern of the Arabs for what has been taking place in Syria for over a year, where civil division is being consecrated and the country is drowning in wars of attrition from North to South, threatening to bring about the collapse of the state, with its security and civilian institutions, much like what took place in Iraq, and of such chaos moving beyond the border.
Negotiations between the West and Iran are revolving around sharing influence on Arab soil, in the absence of the Arabs, who are drowning in their internal wars and disputes, in their “Spring", and in an arms race from the arsenal of this West which is negotiating in Israel's name.


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