The positive character of the Lebanese government's resignation the way it was seen is quite obvious, as each of the sides of national division will use the caretaker government to allow the ratification of what it would have been embarrassed to accept had the government enjoyed its full powers. The government's resignation scores a big point in favor of the March 8 alliance by showing its ability to manage the country based on its own will and without exiting the context of the law – unlike the previous times in 2007 and 2008. Moreover, the March 8 forces will come out as being concerned about Lebanon's independence and about distancing it from the American subjugation attempts. It is also likely that the March 14 group will seek ways to enhance its position vis-à-vis what happened. It will do this through –for example - the non-announcement by a government headed by Saad al-Hariri of its support of and commitment to an indictment accusing Hezbollah and Syria of being implicated in the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri and the other victims. This is in form. But beyond the surface, the current stage of crises seems to mark a consecration of a division which has been deepening since 2004, while each internal or external step ever since the issuance of Security Council Resolution 1559 has been announcing two things. The first is that the political system in Lebanon can no longer work, while the second is that the domestic and foreign balances of powers are not ready to produce a settlement allowing the renewal of the system. The simple conclusion at this level is that the upcoming settlement – regardless of when it is reached – will not exit the sectarian context but will carry clearer denominational touches than before. Without going through the numerous negative aspects and few positive aspects of the Taif Accord, one must say that the amendment of the latter formula would be impossible without the occurrence of a major event that would justify the return of the representatives of the main sects around the negotiations table. The assassination of al-Hariri came in response to Resolution 1559, and the international tribunal was formed to maintain the improvement affecting the position of one of the teams of division represented by the withdrawal of the Syrian army and the March 14 team's earning of a parliamentary majority (twice in a row). As for the annulment of the tribunal, it requires – based on that equation – the occurrence of a major transformation on the Lebanese domestic arena or in the region, one which may allow the justification of the recanting by the international community represented by the Security Council of its previous decisions, and would lead to the writing off of the tribunal. Despite the Arab decay, the alternative powers for the official Arab regime, i.e. Israel, Turkey and Iran, do not seem capable of drafting major understandings among themselves and with the United States, without including the Arab states. Lebanon, in the meantime, is stuck in this area of Arab weightlessness. It is thus not tilting toward the American side supported by the Arab moderate camp, despite incentives related to economic facts and the reliance on foreign relations as a source of income (through the transfers of residents abroad, aids and donations which have started to constitute a major part of the Lebanon economic wheel). Nor is it capable of embracing the “rejectionist” axis with its Iranian command, due to the influential presence of many Lebanese who are holding on to the slogans of resistance and hostility toward the United States, Israel and their options. This is not to mention the efficiency of parallel economy which more than one expert believes exceeds hundreds of millions of dollars. Between the political commitments and the economic engagements, the Arab vacuum and the unripe regional alternatives, Lebanon is entering a stage of deep crisis which might extend over a long period of time. Consequently, the calls to annul the international tribunal stem from the disregarding of the mechanisms by which the international institutions operate, as well as the regulating accurate calculations. At the same time, these calls will constitute a pretext for the launching of ventures seeking the toppling of the equations whose immobilization is the object of complaints.
