Lebanese-Syrian relations have entered a phase of seriousness in outlining the future of cooperation between the two countries, and sketching out their joint position in a wide regional framework. This phase also involves creating the nature of special bilateral ties, bearing in mind all of the historical and geographical complications and legacies, both positive and negative, of the past. The recent visit by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to Damascus, the heavy plate of items that were dealt with, the expansion of meetings that took place, to cover a meeting between Hariri, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, all hinted that the challenges and difficulties faced by the countries on the regional front each required country to deal with the other as if they are in a single regional arena, with each affected by the complications that arise for the other. Most likely, the period of testing for the resumption of relations between the two countries, ever since Lebanese President Michel Sleiman's visit to Damascus in the summer of 2008, followed by Hariri's first visit at the end of last year, has given both Syria and Lebanon the opportunity to cement their policy of anchoring bilateral ties on new foundations. Most importantly, these foundations include a network of interests that each has been active in using to reduce the burdens of the past. The two leaderships might require more practice at this new type of bilateral dealings, even though they have made good progress in learning from the past. However, the establishment of a new method has come to allow each country to rely on it, in order to spend efforts on key regional events that await. In this phase, Damascus was playing a central political role regionally, in treating the crisis of forming a government in Iraq, as it enjoys multilateral ties with the countries involved in this crisis, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as well as big powers concerned with what would transpire in Mesopotamia. There is no need to recall Syria's role with the Palestinians, and how Syria is needed to conduct a Palestinian reconciliation, etc. These are all negotiating cards that the Syrian leadership as part of the western openness to the country. However, all of these roles, which have proven the central role of Damascus in the regional arena, are insufficient to bring bilateral relations with Lebanon up to a standard that matches the level of regional challenges in which failure might lead to other regional roles losing their effectiveness. Just as Lebanon required a rapprochement with Syria in order to return to a minimum level of stability, which the country had lost since the summer of 2004, stability in Lebanon has come to require Syria to retain its central regional role. This is because the threats to stability will harm Damascus, in one way or another. Therefore, the repercussions of the Israeli war against Lebanon and Hezbollah will not see Syria isolated. Damascus, like its ally Hezbollah, is readying itself to confront this possibility, but it wants to remove it, so as not to see it wipe out its achievements in the process of holding various cards. If the confrontation over destabilization via war is the first challenge, the second involves confronting the speculation and fears of the repercussions of an indictment in the Rafic al-Hariri assassination case, against members of Hezbollah, for the situation in Lebanon, such that they lead to strife and instability, not to mention the possibility that this indictment will harm Syria, in one way or another. As Israel is trying to protect itself from a war by using the Iron Dome project, to intercept the rockets of Hezbollah, which in turns depends on its rocket arsenal as a deterrent against the Israeli war option, Damascus and Lebanon are relying on a network of regional and international relations to guarantee their staying away from war. Some believe that the scope of joint regional and international relations that Lebanon and Syria enjoy will let them wager on benefiting from this safety network to banish the specter of war and the repercussions of the indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Even the gray areas of this space can allow both Syria and Lebanon to help the other, according to the position of each. Assad and Hariri have played a fundamental role in developing and improving their relations with Russia and Turkey. There is Lebanon's good relationship with Europe, but the latter's opening to Syria is no less important. America is keen to support Lebanon in confronting Iranian influence, while Syria's dialogue with Washington is steadily moving forward, despite the obstacles. If Lebanon's ties with Saudi Arabia are special, and distinguished, the relations between Damascus and Riyadh are full of deep and ongoing coordination over Yemen, Iraq and Egypt. While the strategic alliance between Syria and Iran continues, Lebanon is preparing to open itself once again to the latter country. Each of these countries has its role in its relationship with either Lebanon or Syria, confronting the challenge of war and the repercussions of the STL. some of them are better at dissuading Israel from war, and others are better at treating the repercussions of the STL.
