Lebanon finds itself today in the midst of a political turmoil that threatens further inevitable and gradually escalating aggravation, based on the indications that the Lebanese political scene betrays in this direction. The debate that is taking place in political circles or among ordinary citizens in Beirut is no longer about whether the country is teetering between calm and political tensions. Instead, it is about whether the country is teetering between a political crisis that would lead to a power vacuum – where the opposition would seize control of the government by dismantling the national unity government from within – and the scenario where this crisis would spread into the streets. This would take the form of a deployment by Hezbollah and its allies in several Lebanese regions, in protest of the issuance of the indictment by the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), or in anticipation of it, in order to put pressure on the international community to abolish it, or push Prime Minister Saad Hariri to reject such an indictment prior to his departure... The first scenario above – the teetering between calm and tension – was prevalent a few weeks ago, assisted by the sense of reassurance in Lebanese political circles regarding the Saudi-Syrian accord which considers stability and security a red line. However, a large segment of public opinion and even of politicians began to rule out the possibility of having calm, and to conclude instead that [Lebanon] will henceforth teeter between political tension and tensions on the ground. This conviction was then further substantiated when Hezbollah's militants entered the premises of the Rafik Hariri International Airport, under the pretext of defending one of the four generals against the possibility of a judicial summons involving him. This took place after this general went on the offensive, with Syrian support, and after some figures in the opposition, most notably Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, changed their positions regarding the STL: Hitherto, they were distinguishing between the indictment and the STL itself. Then the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt, Damascus's new ally, joined this new position in abandoning this distinction, and rejecting the STL itself. While Berri did so by refusing to allow Lebanon to contribute to the funding of the STL under the guise of the unconstitutionality of Lebanon's [initial] request for the tribunal's establishment, Jumblatt has rejected the STL under the pretext that the choice between it and civil peace is an easy one. There is also another development that increased the conviction of the Lebanese that their choice between calm and political tension has been replaced by the choice between political tension and the possibility of that spreading into the streets and causing security incidents in the upcoming period: It is the Syrian arrest warrants issued against members of Hariri's team, under the pretext of prosecuting false witnesses, but with the actual aim being the escalation of the campaign against the credibility of the STL prior to the issuance of its indictment. These warrants have added more credibility to Hezbollah's assertion that anyone who believes there is a dispute between Syria and Hezbollah is delusional. The warrants were also an additional proof of the shakiness of the Saudi-Syrian accord regarding Lebanon, as signs to this effect have started to emerge through the opposition's fierce attacks against Hariri since early last month. Hariri refused to comply with the demands for him to withdraw from the STL in his capacity as the avenger of blood, and to announce that the indictment that will be issued by it was made in Israel – according to the dictates that were leaked in this regard. Instead, he announced his full support of the STL, because the opposite would mean the end of his political life. Given this, ending political calm was a natural response. But in truth, this is something that Hezbollah has anticipated for months now, by refusing Hariri's request to meet with the party's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah since last July, as Hezbollah rejects any dialogue before Hariri declares what the party believes he should declare. Hariri's declaration on September 6 that he is dropping the political accusation against Syria of having assassinated his father, and that he condemns the false witnesses, were a sign that a compromise regarding the repercussions of the assassination is possible, after the issuance of the indictment. However, demanding him to abolish the STL abolishes the possibilities of such a settlement, and subsequently, abolishes the prospects of having calm…and the dialogue that many incessantly call for in order to address the tension caused by the battle over the tribunal. As a result of all this, the Lebanese will at minimum face a scenario of political tensions that may escalate up to dismantling the government and replacing it with another that includes those who want to eliminate the STL, a government that will ask the Security Council to abolish it (but the Council will not respond). However, the Lebanese remember a great deal of things about a previous government that excluded substantial elements, and waged a war against the latter's figures in the state and the political scene at large. For instance, what happened in 1998 when Rafik Hariri was excluded backfired and increased his popularity many times over. Meanwhile, if the possibility of escalation in the street and at the security level increases in likelihood, then this is a different matter.
