JEDDAH — Saudi Arabia will remain self-sufficient in natural gas, with production and consumption rising to 131 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2021 from an estimated 94.8 bcm in 2011, BMI said in “Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012”. However, the report noted that though refinery expansion is proceeding broadly to schedule, Saudi Arabia cannot claim the same about its gas exploration and development program. “Drilling has again been delayed in the Empty Quarter, which is a further sign of a frustrating process that may leave the Kingdom short of gas as demand continues to rise. There has been little apparent progress on plans to boost productive capacity from the current 12 million barrels per day (b/d) to 14-15 million b/d.” After reaching 10.1 million b/d in July 2012, Saudi crude production is believed to have edged a fraction lower in August as Asian demand dried up. With domestic consumption moving higher, Saudi Arabia's output could creep above 10.2 million b/d. BMI expects Saudi crude production alone to have reached almost 11.1mb/d by 2021, with the slow rise symptomatic of a desire to control oil prices and maintain relative market tightness. Total liquids supply by the end of the forecast period is set to reach around 13.2mb/d. Oil consumption is expected to rise by about 1.1mb/d during the period to 2021, with much of the increase driven by the rising utilization of crude oil for power generation. Greater exploration of the Red Sea and prospects for tight gas production could bode well for gas reserves, although progress in the so-called Empty Quarter remains slow. Sino Saudi Gas, a joint venture between China's state-controlled Sinopec and Saudi Aramco, in August 2012 announced a delay in plans to drill for gas in the Empty Quarter. The delay was attributed to the need to further evaluate the ‘economic and technical aspects of the well' according to an unnamed Sinopec executive quoted by Reuters. The advancement of refinery projects could turn Saudi Arabia into a gasoline exporter, while petrochemicals producers continue to take advantage of cheap feedstock (gas, naphtha). BMI forecasts an average OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of $107.05/bbl, falling to $99.10 in 2013. By 2016, it expects the price to average $93.25, edging lower to $91.50/bbl by 2021. Based on these assumptions and BMI's production forecasts, Saudi Arabia's oil revenues should decrease from an estimated $334.5 billion in 2012 to $301.1 billion by 2021. In a separate report, Citi Research Equities said Saudi Arabia produces 9.6bn ft3/day of natural gas. This is entirely consumed domestically. It is looking to raise gas production to 15.5bn ft3/day by 2015E, implying a 2011-15E CAGR of 12.7 percent. However, peak power demand is growing at almost 8 percent per annum. Citi believes Saudi Arabia will need to find new sources to meet residential & industrial demand. Gas demand in the Arab region has grown faster than oil demand in the past 10 years to peak at 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2005, according to a study by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). The demand is projected to rise to 4.08 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED) in 2010 and to 5.1 million in 2015 before it climbs to a record 6.4 million, an annual growth of 4.4 percent between 2005 and 2020. The growth is expected to expand the share of gas in the Arab energy market from 41.5 percent in 2005 to 46.2 percent in 2020. The expansion will be at the expense of oil products demand, whose share will slide to around 51 percent from 55.8 per cent in the same period, projections show that the gas share will continue to grow during that period while the market share of oil products will decline. This increase is a natural result of economic growth and plans by regional states to rely more on gas in their energy consumption mainly in industries, domestic use and power generation. A key reason for this shift is that GCC countries are focusing on monetizing their oil exports especially with the high prices that have been observed throughout 2006. In a separate study, OAPEC said that combined Arab gas exports have soared by more than 25 percent over the past five years, climbing from 83,043 million cubic meters in 2000 to a record 104,770 million cubic meters in 2005. The bulk of the increase was in Qatar, with its exports of natural and liquefied natural gas jumping from around 14,040 million cubic meters to 24,060 million cubic meters. The Gulf producer has embarked on mega projects to tap its mammoth North Field and become the world's number one in LNG exports, which have already exceeded 25 million tons a year and are projected to climb to 77 million tons in 2011. Gas exports by the UAE increased slightly and there was sharp growth by Oman, which is not an OAPEC or OPEC member. It showed Saudi Arabia was by far the largest gas consumer in the region, with local demand rising from 635,000 BOED in 2001 to 680,000 BOED in 2005. Gas consumption surged from 419,000 to 530,000 BOED in the UAE, from 443,000 to 515,000 in Egypt, from 375,000 to 415,000 in Qatar and from 380,000 to 415,000 BOED in Algeria. There were also increases in Libya, Bahrain, Syria and Tunisia but declines in Kuwait and Iraq. A total of 50 oil discoveries and 13 gas findings were reported in 2005 but most of them were relatively small and more than two thirds of them were made in Egypt as a result of intensified exploration programs. As a result, the proven Arab gas reserves remained almost unchanged at around 53,353 billion cubic meters at the end of 2005 compared with 53,263 billion cubic meters at the end of 2004 and nearly 52,240 billion cubic meters at the end of 2000. — SG
