Qatar will account for just 1.10 percent of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.70 percent of supply, BMI said in its latest “Qatar Oil & Gas Report”. Regional oil use of 7.47 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.64 million b/d in 2009. It should average 10.98 million b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 11.95 million b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 22.83 million b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 24.66 million b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 27.18 million b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 15.36 million b/d. This total had eased to an estimated 14.02 million b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 15.23 million b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 367.6bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 492.5bcm targeted for 2014, representing 28.7 percent growth. Estimated production of 429.9bcm in 2009 should reach 657.8bcm in 2014 (+39.8 percent), which implies net exports rising to 165.0bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2009 consumed an estimated 5.82 percent of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 7.12 percent by 2014. It contributed an estimated 24.89 percent to 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 23.81 percent of supply. BMI forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average $83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around $85.11, $88.22 and $83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at $83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average $85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, the report forecast $90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of $96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38 percent. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average $92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37 percent increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be $95.58/bbl, compared with $70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI forecast the average naphtha price for 2010 at US$82.46/bbl, up 39 percent from the previous year's level. Qatar's real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 7.8 percent in 2009, followed by forecast 15.3 percent growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 8.3 percent in 2010-2014. Qatar Petroleum negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50 percent of oil and 40 percent of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.38 million b/d of 2009 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.82 million b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 157bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 107bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 21bcm to 35bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing for exports of 122bcm.
