Kuwait will account for 2.71 percent of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.35 percent of supply, the “Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009” released by companiesandmarkets.com on Thursday said. Regional oil use of 8.24 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 11.25 million b/d in 2008, the report said, noting that it should average 11.30 million b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.17 million b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87 million b/d in 2001 and in 2008 averaged 26.29 million b/d. It is set to rise to 28.01 million b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63 million b/d. This total had risen to 15.04 million b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 15.84 million b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 391.5bn cubic meters (bcm), with demand of 512.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 31.0 percent growth. Production of 389.5bcm in 2008 should reach 610.4bcm in 2013 (+56.7 percent), which implies net exports rising to 98bcm by the end of the period. Kuwait in 2008 consumed 3.27 percent of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 4.93 percent by 2013. It contributed 3.29 percent to 2008 regional gas production and by 2013 will account for 3.16 percent of supply. For 2009 as a whole, the report said based on the assumption of average $55.00 per barrel OPEC basket price, it forecast a 41.5 percent decline year-on-year (y-o-y), representing an upgrade from the $52 forecast made during the past three quarters. For 2010, the report forecast a recovery to $60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of $58), gaining further ground to $65.00 in 2011 and to $70.00/bbl in 2012. The post-2010 forecasts were unchanged and saw $70.00/bbl for 2013-2018. In 2009, the report saw a global average gasoline price of $62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0 percent. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of $68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of $92.49/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 43.4 percent fall from the 2008 level, it added. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be $65.17/bbl, compared with $124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at $49.06/bbl, down 43.9 percent from the previous year's level. Kuwaiti real GDP is now forecast to fall by 1.0 percent in 2009, following growth of 6.3 percent in 2008. The country's GDP is forecast to grow 2.1 percent growth in 2010, 2.5 percent in 2011, followed by 3.4 percent in 2012 and 3.7 percent in 2013. “We expect oil demand to rise from 300,000b/d in 2008 to 330,000b/d in 2013, lagging the underlying rate of economic expansion,” the report said. In spite of the absence of near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to increase from 2.78 million b/d in 2008 to 2.90 million b/d in 2013, subject to OPEC quotas. Gas production should reach 19.3bcm by 2013, up from 12.8bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 12.8bcm to 25.3bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 6.0bcm. Between 2008 and 2018, Kuwait's oil production is forecast to rise 29.3 percent, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.60 million b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 29.2 percent, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0 percent per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 388,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to climb to almost 27bcm by the end of the period. With 2008-2018 demand growth of 204 percent, this provides an import requirement rising to more than 12bcm by 2018.
