Reuters THE Arab League decision to suspend Syria and impose sanctions after nearly eight months of unrest will encourage tougher international measures against Damascus but is unlikely to lead to Western military intervention. Unlike the Arab group's call in March for a no-fly zone over Libya, which set the stage for the NATO action that helped topple Muammar Gaddafi, Saturday's surprisingly tough measures did not include a request for the use of force. But they will strengthen Western powers arguing for a tough United Nations resolution criticizing Syria's suppression of protests against President Bashar Al-Assad, in which the UN says 3,500 people have been killed. They will also further embolden demonstrators who, inspired by uprisings which toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, have defied a sustained military crackdown since March and taken to the streets to call for Assad's overthrow. “We don't want foreign intervention,” Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim said as he announced the Arab League's decision in Cairo. “We are not talking about arming (the opposition), or a no-fly zone. No one at the League is talking about this issue.” But the measures he announced – including suspension from the League, political and economic sanctions, and an appeal to the army to stop shooting civilians – marked a dramatic increase in the pressure on Syria by countries traditionally reluctant to intervene in the affairs of fellow Arab states. Assad already faces US and European sanctions against Syria's oil exports and several state businesses, and has alienated his powerful northern neighbor, Turkey. The Arab League decision to withdraw Arab ambassadors from Damascus isolates him and makes him ever more reliant on Iran, tightening relations forged by Bashar's father Hafez and strengthened during Bashar's 11-year presidency. Damascus responded angrily to the Arab League suspension, approved by 18 foreign ministers of the 22-member body, saying such decisions could only be taken by consensus and accusing the organization of implementing a Western and anti-Syrian agenda. “For all the Syrian bravado and rhetoric, this is the biggest hit that they have taken. Even more so than the EU and US sanctions,” said Rime Allaf, associate fellow at London's Chatham House. The Qatari premier did not spell out the economic sanctions planned against Syria, which is already expected to suffer a sharp economic downturn this year as tourism revenues dry up, trade falls, manufacturing is disrupted, oil output dips and authorities struggle to find buyers of Syrian crude. Full-scale trade sanctions would be devastating but might be difficult to implement. But analysts say targeted sanctions may be imposed, possibly on the sale of oil products to Syria. “A full-on trade embargo would be a dramatic escalation and would be surprising. It would be a very clear statement that they want to remove the regime, not just force concessions from it,” said Chris Phillips, a Middle East analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). “I think it highly unlikely. Even with political will to do that, it would be difficult logistically,” he said, adding that neighboring Turkey and Iraq both rely heavily on Syrian transit trade for their exports and imports. Adel Soliman, head of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said economic sanctions would not force Assad into any policy change but would bolster international moves against Damascus. The package of Arab League measures, which included proposals for talks with human rights organizations about ways of protecting Syrian civilians, would “give a chance for all the international community to act,” Soliman said. China and Russia, veto-holding members of the UN Security Council, blocked European and US efforts to obtain a resolution which would have condemned Syria's crackdown and could have paved the way for UN sanctions. The EIU's Phillips said Saturday's suspension could go some way towards softening China's opposition to a UN resolution, which he said was based partly on Beijing's concern not to be seen to be acting against the wishes of Arab trading partners. Despite the growing international pressure, few expect Assad to end the crackdown whose targets he says are militant groups that Damascus blames for the violence in Syria. __
