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The Soft War in Ukraine!
Al-Riyadh Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 10 - 03 - 2014

Has the maneuvering field become open again as before when the cold war between the Eastern and Western blocs had been launching wars through other parties and playing with the destiny of nations such as the occurrence of a coop against a capitalist regime in Asia followed by a counter coop against a communist regime in South America or such as what had happened in Vietnam War in which the Eastern bloc achieved victory against the Western bloc which achieved a counter victory in Afghanistan during the war led by the Soviet Union there.
Reoccurrence of Such incidents is not possible anymore as the political division of East & West itself is not existed anymore. The ideologies have disappeared now as the economic systems in the United States and Europe is not different from the economic system of the Russian Federation in the present time. The same thing applies to the idioms of Cold War, Arms Race, Star Wars & Sharing of Influence. All such terms have vanished as what has remained is what can be called the soft war which means practicing the political and economic pressure but through careful calculations as each front has its powerful conflict running factors which are used on the game yard.
Ukraine has entered into the new melee and brought back what looks like the cold war but through different tools. Considering that the Russians are achieving gains in Syria; it has been said that moving the crisis in Ukraine is a reaction to that (Syrian) condition. In spite of such possible interpretation, we do not confirm that it is real as the incident has resulted from a condition which has been fidgeting many years ago starting from the Orange Revolution of 2004 followed by other protests that led all to the present condition where the issue has involved challenges about who shall achieve victory among the two fronts & who is going to impose its prestige in the game?
The Russians do not want to be the soft belly before a condition considered crucial by them as it threatens their security, especially if we consider that it is occurring in a country considered a part from their cultural and historical identity by them where any hesitation shall put them before the goal of the NATO power if Ukraine has become a part from the European Union. It is for such reason that Crimea issue has been raised for the sake of returning the branch to the original tree, which is an idiom that Saddam Hussein had used when he invaded Kuwait earlier. This island located in the Black Sea in which the Russian Fleet is anchored since the time of the Russian czars represents the sole Russian base in the warm waters. Snatching this island from Ukraine shall represent a tough and complicated pressure on them but what shall the West provide as a financial and military alternative together with a political pressure practiced on Russia?
The military maneuver which leads to a war is totally unlikely if we consider that the Americans had occupied Iraq and the NATO power played the basic role in Libya for ending the governance of Gaddafi while they had been alliances to Russia to some extent and Russia had done nothing except for the media protests that had changed nothing real on ground.
The same thing is going to happen in Ukraine as the West shall maneuver through certain limits to be held free from accountability. Meanwhile, the economical operations shall keep being procedures applied through a soft confrontation. The field is open and every party has a weapon that can be used for resistance and practice of pressure. However, there is another vision related to a surprise launched by the West for confusing Russia, whether within its angry and semi troubled republics or through its geographic surrounding. This try had failed earlier in Chechnya and matters cannot be judged through simplifying the reality but we need to consider that moving a certain location for the sake of achieving the interest of any party, whether Russian or Western, has not become as easy as it used to be in the past. The rise of such high level conflicts may indicate that a new course of competition has started to rise and may lead towards the unknown during the coming days.


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