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Iran in front of the oil embargo
Al-Riyadh's Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 06 - 07 - 2012

Since yesterday, Iran has been facing unmatched oil sanctions. In spite of its being a tough negotiator with its opponents, the motive behind its attitude is popular and national as it considers that its production of nuclear weapons a matter of national pride and a confirmation of a bigger role in its geographic perimeter. However, the issues are not foggy or unclear for the western powers who had been involved in a cold war & arms race that reached the space with the Soviet Union before, in addition to other media & economic wars, a military and material draining in various wars, covering some communist parties financially and giving priority to arming. Yet' all these factors led to the end of the Soviet age as a power equal to the West.
Iran followed the same direction in spite of the big difference in the economic capabilities, geographic area and human power. Thus, arms race and supporting its allies have become a big burden for it. Meanwhile, the West is running its policy through the practicing the political and economic pressure and using its weapons through the "challenge & response" principle. This means that the West is not wasting its chances while he has a strong durability for facing the tough situations. Iran may resist the confrontation but can do this for long due to the economic pressure practiced on it that shall put the Iranian citizen in confrontation with its authority when he feels that it is disable to provide him with the simplest basic needs.
The Russian upon which Iran depends as an ally represent a big oil country. The market loss of Iran oil may serve their interest through exporting more amounts of the high price oil. Thus, they cannot practice the role of a substitution tool for absorbing Iran's oil exports.
China cannot depend on one exporting country even if it bargains for low price oil with Iran due to that it fears confronting the United States and Europe that may adopt other pressures for pushing it towards retreat. South America has oil producing countries like Venezuela and other oil – exporting countries which do not represent a basic market for changing the route of such product as they are still marching in the path of third world countries, except for Brazil. However, Brazil will find that its welfare is with the West rather than with a normal country like Iran when it runs its external policy.
The course of pressure is serving the interest of the West and the United States. Iran shall not find someone to buy or market its oil in a way that covers its losses and expenses required for its internal and external needs. Meanwhile, the west shall not be harmed as long as its needs are provided by the market while oil prices are moving towards decline at the same time. This situation shall lead Iran towards being in a worse position.
The battle is between powers that can impose its will and influence and another stubborn one which believes that it has equal power and adopts willfulness, emotions and gaining the public through deceptions that do not depend on logic. Thus, it is difficult to estimate the results or to build assumptions on them before a power that insists to win the round through the strong pressure and another one which struggles between the national pride fire and the basic needs.
Iran's owning of nuclear weapon cannot be determined by Iran only due to that the powers which already have it own the various deterring tools. Comparing the two powers together shall show clearly that the powers which are allying against Iran are stronger and it is impossible to deny such fact or underestimate it.


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