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Are we going to witness the ally of East against the West?!
Al-Riyadh's Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 23 - 07 - 2012

The new Arab events have started to draw the features of an international policy in regard to forming a different type of the dual power conflict between the old Soviet Union and NATO which role played in the past divided the region between the West & the East. With the present occurrence of Arab spring; some allies with no ideology have started to be created or formulated. It is a return to the cold war but through means or tools that fit the present condition.
The scene has started with the American & Western forces entrance into the Libyan Republic & terminating the ruling of Gaddafi. This event happened among a sense of bewilderment and retreat by Russia and China. It was considered a victory that changed the strategic formula of Russia & China as they have become with no influencing locations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
Syria has changed this image. In spite of Russia's, China's & Iran's enthusiasm and support of the Syrian regime; NATO countries have not been in the core of the confrontation but do not want, at the same time, to Russia and China to open outlets from which they can overlook critical areas. Strategically, Syria is an ideal location for Russia to put all of its political weight behind, as its influence in Syria shall provide it with the right of interference in any deal made in the Arab Homeland or Central Asia which constitute its surrounding circumference. However, the Syrian paper has burnt in the Russian hand as in spite of Russia's support and strengthening of the Syrian regime through the military support and the political one in Security Council, the Syrian nation has started to resolve the revolution in his favor. The fall of the Syrian regime means depriving the Russians, Chinese & Iranians from any role with the coming authority.
There are perceptions about a coming civil war for which the Syrian regime is preparing itself through leaving its power in the hands of the Alawites. This scenario may lead to the establishment of the Alawites state on the Syrian coast while each of the West & Israel may not mind dividing a country which has been hostile to Israel. It may be that the undeclared division of Iraq can be reproduced in a different way in Syria. The game may grow bigger here if disorder prevails as Israel's security shall be similar to the Lebanese case during the civil war which created problems for Israel's security that led to wars with Lebanon.
The vision is not clear yet in the present time, except for the Russian direct and declared support for the Syrian regime. There have been rumors about that the West used an additional weapon when it penetrated the Syrian Security Body and provided the opposition with the information related to the regime's army movements and plans, in addition to that the blowing up Syrian National Security Building came / occurred as a response to the Russians and a proof to them that it is easy to enter into the core of the Syrian issue without using the weapons. This explosion is, for sure, one of the signs of the secret power between NATO countries, from one side and China & Russia, from the other one, where Syria represents the battle field and the experiments area.
The formation of a new international policy has started with the end of the Soviet Union when the American have had the hysteria of the Sole Super Power that led them towards jumping over their allies in Europe when Bush described them as the "retarded countries" if compared with the United States that can launch three wars at one time. However, the rise of China as an economic and political power & Russia's preservation of its military power constituted a new dimension in regard to influence sharing which led to the rise of allies based on power balance. This development may push the conflict two parties towards returning to the allies with the small powers. It's a form that may arise provided that no single party shall run the international policy alone. These perceptions are possible in the coming days according to the development of events.


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