If the Geneva 2 conference were held today on the basis of the results of the talks of the Friends of Syria group in London this week, it would end in abject failure, followed by escalation in military confrontations. This ultimately means one thing: killing more innocent Syrian civilians. The London meeting was supposed to lead to the formation of a unified front against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but all it ended up doing was focus the spotlight on the enormous differences among various Syrian opposition groups, and the failure of the ‘Friends' to agree on one unified view. The United States is opposed to military intervention in Syria, and its red lines are a myth. France and Britain support military intervention, but have limited capabilities. Germany and Italy are against military intervention, and their goal is to provide humanitarian aid. Turkey has sided with the Islamist opposition, and now, its primary goal is to keep the Syrian civil war within Syria's borders, which is also the desire of Jordan, as it focuses on aiding Syrian refugees. Saudi Arabia supports the national opposition, but the latter does not support itself, and has become several "oppositions" that are sometimes more hostile to one another than to the regime. Qatar backs Islamist groups, including some that are extremist, if not terrorist. As for the United Arab Emirates, it fears Iranian influence in Syria and the threat of it increasing, which is a real threat if the opposition in Syria is defeated. Then there is Egypt, which once led the Arab bloc, but which today needs help itself against the terrorism of the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies, and therefore, its role is very limited. The situation of the Syrian opposition is a lot worse than that of the ‘Friends.' Political opposition like the National Coalition and National Council rarely agree, and there are even disputes within the same body. Meanwhile, nothing remains of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) except its name, after a large number of brigades announced that they do not recognize its leadership. Some of these groups are only a name with no real presence on the ground, while others include criminal gangs, or radical fundamentalist groups. Worst of all, if that is at all possible, is that Syria has now become an arena for the activities of criminal terrorist groups, initially with al-Nusra Front, and now with the terrorists from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and other groups. These groups are all al-Qaeda affiliates no matter what their names are, and any success for them will mean that Syria would be transitioning from a bad regime to a much worse regime. Perhaps there will be developments prior to November 23 that make the odds for success in Geneva 2 better than they are now. However, I am personally not optimistic, because the Syrian president is now talking about the possibility of running for a new term next year, all while the ‘Friends' and the opposition are insisting that he should not have a role in Syria's future. Assad is also saying he wants to know who represents the opposition before going to Geneva, and the opposition is saying that it refuses to sit with the regime in Geneva, meaning it is going to negotiate with itself. This is understandable, however, given its huge internal disputes. In the meantime, WHO is saying that polio has returned to Syria, 14 years after the last case of this disease was recorded there, and is mentioning skin diseases in Aleppo with tons of garbage piled up on the streets. What will the next disaster be? A deluge? Everyone has failed the people of Syria. [email protected]
