What is worse, a religious war or a civil war? Syria is embroiled in what is a combination of both, and whether the regime or the opposition wins, the Syrian people will lose, and will pay with their lives, their livelihoods, and their future. The regime won a number of battles in recent weeks, but did not and will not win the war. The prospects for a political solution hinge on the Geneva II conference, which has been postponed from this month to next month. The odds of success are limited, since the opposition has preconditions including Bashar al-Assad stepping down, which the latter rejects, or is not allowed to accept, because his allies Iran and Hezbollah will not accept regime change in Syria. This may help explain why Assad presents himself as though he is the solution, and not the problem. No one is innocent in the ongoing conflict. While I believe good faith is probably behind the stances of the Arab countries that intervened in the Syrian war, I also note that they failed to speak with one voice, as different countries backed different opposition factions. Good faith, meanwhile, is absent in the policies of Russia, the United States, and Europe on the ongoing carnage in Syria, as though the main gist of their attitudes is to manage the crisis rather than end it, as long as both the killers and victims are Syrian. Some of these countries do not want Bashar al-Assad, but also do not want an opposition that has terrorists in its ranks, and so they prefer to let both sides fight each other until mutual annihilation. The United States has announced more than once that it is considering arming the rebels, and President Obama said that his administration will do so. But both the United States and the European Union only decided to take this step after the regime began making progress in the fighting. In other words, the West wants to restore balance between the two sides so that the killing of Syrians may continue, but if the balance tips in favor of the rebels, the West will then stop supporting them. There is US talk now about a no-fly zone and safe areas for the rebels within Syria, and even airstrikes against regime forces. Britain and France have been calling for arming the rebels for months now, and they succeeded in lifting the EU ban on arming the opposition, but they are yet to send any weapons. The West's talk about arming the opposition prompted Russia to resolve to send missiles and MiGs to the regime, while the Syrian opposition factions do not have enough ammunition, let alone advanced weaponry to face off a large regular army. The regime has an army, security forces, and Shabiha (pro-regime militias). The armed opposition comprises the Free Syrian Army led by Salim Idris, which commands 30 to 40 thousand men; the Ahrar al-Sham Brigade consisting of Islamist fighters funded by Qatar; the Suqur al-Sham Brigade; Ahfad al-Rasoul Brigade; and al-Nusra Front, which declared its allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, which means that it is a terrorist group like al-Qaeda. There are also rebel military councils operating in cities like Aleppo and Homs. On the political side, the opposition is represented by the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), which recently expanded its membership from 63 to 114 members. So far, 22 new members have joined the SNC, most of them secular and from minority groups, and 29 more members are set to follow suit, including 15 from the FSA and 14 from the Revolutionary Movement. Most likely, the goal is to prevent the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood in the SNC, and reassure the Gulf countries that want to aid the rebels. There is also the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCC) which operates within Syria, and comprises Nasserists, nationalists, and leftists. The NCC seeks a negotiated political solution, but has limited influence. The fragmentation of the armed and political opposition gives foreign countries the pretext not to deliver on their promises. For instance, they can claim that they do not know who to support, or that they cannot guarantee that aid will reach the faction they want to help, rather than extremists or terrorists. This situation has had its toll on the Syrian refugees. The United Nations recently estimated that the latter's number would rise to 3.2 million by the end of this year, and wants to raise $5.2 billion to aid them. Nevertheless, donations remain limited, and international aid groups are saying that they are hardly receiving enough funding to continue their daily work in aiding Syrian refugees in neighboring countries. The regime feels that it has the initiative and is preparing for the battle of Aleppo. The FSA, through its leader Salim Idris, is asking the Americans and Europeans for help before it is too late. Both sides are fighting a war in the name of the Syrian people, but no one will win the conflict, and the people will surely lose.
