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Morocco: Settlement away from the Street
Published in AL HAYAT on 14 - 07 - 2013

Each time the Moroccan Al-Istiqlal party leaves the government, any government at all, its leaders think that they will be back under different circumstances. When the party opted for opposing the cabinet of Abdelilah Benkirane and siding by its former ally, the Socialist Union, in the position of the opposition, it could have formed a wide front of opposing factions and thus called for withdrawing the vote of confidence from the cabinet before the latter could recover from the shock. However, Al-Istiqlal did not do that.
Al-Istiqlal, along with potential allies in the opposition, knows that toppling the cabinet through voting ballots is better than cornering it and pushing it to resign, because this would impose the need for holding early elections. As long as the opposition factions are relying on the erosion of the popularity and power of the Justice and Development party that is leading the government, it is better to wait for the political effects to begin than to stage an open confrontation with the cabinet of Benkirane, especially that the present political era is no longer favoring the post Arab Spring cabinet in Morocco and other places. Indeed, the opposition will have to ally itself with an adversary that it had once clashed with in the past. It is easier for the Justice and Development to convince its supporters of the need for such an alliance, than to just abandon the executive authority.
The political foes are relying on the element of time and thus, they prefer to maintain the present status quo. Abdelilah Benkirane believes that his party can obtain a mandate from the National Council, which will enhance its chances of overcoming the present crisis, even if this calls for holding negotiations with the Al-Ahrar group, which is led by the former Minister of Finance, Salaheddine Mezwar, who had been slammed by the hawks of the Justice and Development. Meanwhile, his opponents at the opposition are waiting for the opportunity to set him up by using the potential alliance as a controversy-ridden pressure card. However, it seems that no one wishes to conduct early elections until the circumstances of the confrontation become ripe. Such circumstances for the opposition include getting rid of the ghost of the Arab Spring that brought the Islamists of Morocco and other countries to power.
The Justice and Development is aware of the situation. This party has been thrilled with the Arab Spring since it brought it to power. However, it still realizes the negative repercussions that might affect its image. Therefore, it does not mind to open up to its former adversaries in order to avoid being accused of monopolization of the state. The party had to find a new ally, in order to avoid a massive fall. Was it not for that, it would have never opened up to its political foe.
The cabinet crisis in Morocco has several effects. For instance, solving this crisis consists of using the constitutional reference instead of taking to the street. Indeed, the protests against the cabinet often have an economic and social aspect. None of the opposition factions have called for toppling the cabinet through a movement of protest of rebellion, which is pushing the parties and societal factions to become more acquainted with the constitutional reference. Undoubtedly, the present crisis that stirred many thoughts concerning the possibility of reverting to a royal arbitrage, will pave the way for several ideas before allowing for a second rank party to form the cabinet, in the event that the first party is unable to proceed and to secure the majority. However, this is just an assumption.
As for the other party, it is being more cautious and self restricted, in order not to provide the impression that this crisis represents a coup against the legitimacy of the voting ballots. The features of this crisis emerged since the early months that followed the Justice and Development's access to power. This was all when this party's partners at the governmental coalition blamed it for monopolizing the decision making process. The matter evolved into a war of memos and statements, before the minister of Al-Istiqlal tendered their resignation. However, despite this crisis, reverting to the voting ballots is currently unlikely. This is partly due to the fact that no party or bloc will be able to obtain a comfortable majority, allowing it to do without any alliances. Therefore, the factors that produced the present crisis might re-produce similar developments. On the other hand, the government has not decided yet on the time of the municipal elections that were supposed to take place last year. Therefore, it will be hard for it to call for early legislative elections.
Between this and that, the prime minister can do nothing but extend his hand to his old adversaries, even though he knows that they will respond to his step by asking for more. If he succeeds in obtaining the support of the National Council (his party's parliament), he knows that he will be able to overcome all the barriers. The weakness of the governmental structure might allow for figures from his party and all his partners in the governmental alliance to access power. This is an encouraging pending a greater confrontation the time of which has not come yet.


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