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Why Rohani?
Published in AL HAYAT on 19 - 06 - 2013

In his first press conference, Iranian President-elect Hasan Rohani defined the content of his new task rather than his governance program. The man is an expert on the mechanisms of the Iranian authority and how decision is made in it, and he knows very well that the latter program is drawn up in a location other than the presidency.
Rohani intentionally reiterated the known Iranian positions towards all the heated files, in order to eliminate any illusions that might have surrounded his election as a president who will introduce change at the level of Iranian policy. On the other hand, the man lengthily tackled the livelihood issues of the Iranian people, meaning that this question will be the main headline of his presidential mandate.
Rohani does not belong to the first rank leaders of the conservative wing which emerged under Mahmud Ahmadinejad's presidency. Moreover, he practiced a key and public role under Mohammad Khatami, which pushed some analysts to classify him as part of the "reformist-moderate" wing. This image of the anti-conservatives candidate was enhanced by the events that prevailed over the presidential elections and the rumors surrounding his exclusion by the Guardian Council of the Constitution. And if anything is revealed by Rohani's election since the first round, it is the Iranian people's desire to get rid of an administration showing no interest in their daily suffering and livelihood, and stubbornly standing in the face of their aspirations to freedom. Hence, this election converged with the popular ambitions, or was at least perceived by the Iranian voters as such.
In parallel, the decision-making circles were reassured by the settlement of the battle in favor of Rohani from the first round. It would be difficult to think that there was any falsification to ensure this outcome, but Rohani's victory, knowing he is a reformist and a moderate, grants the latter circles the time they desperately needed, whether in the face of the internal protest and demands, or in the face of the external files, namely the Syrian file, the relations with the Gulf, and the nuclear file.
As soon as the results were announced – unusually fast – the Iranian decision-makers got what they wanted in terms of the immediate impact of Rohani's election. Indeed, the tense situation with Iran was considered to be caused by the administration of the hardliner, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, while a moderate president would introduce amendments to this stringent policy. Rohani himself tried to enhance this impression during his press conference, by hinting to the security agreement with Saudi Arabia which he personally signed. However, he did not wish to take this logic to the end and talk about the outcome of such agreements, seeing how the files are handled elsewhere, the evidence of that being the numerous Iranian intelligence and security breaches that were committed in the region and that annul the results of any agreement.
Hence, the Iranian decision-makers needed a face that could be sold, instead of those of Jalili, Galibaf or Vileyati that have no value domestically and abroad. On the internal scene, the victory of a figure described as being conservative could have triggered domestic protests as it happened when Ahmadinejad was reelected, and externally, such candidates would not have any credibility when talking about change.
Decision-making in Iran is embodied by Guide Ali Khamenei. But its strength is drawn from the alliance between the Revolutionary Guard (military-security) institution and the religious (political-ideological) institution. The settlement of all files is up to this kitchen, whereas Rohani acts as the intersection point between the two institutions, while adding a flavor of moderation and soft diplomacy that is much needed by Iran right now, in order for it to catch its breath in the face of the pressures to which it being subjected from all directions.


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