The policy of disassociation from the Syrian crisis will soon have no meaning in the dictionary of all those concerned by this crisis, considering that this policy is gradually collapsing. Indeed, the regime and its opponents were able to push all the sides to reveal their cards, and to force all those fighting inside and over Syrian to carry out a clear repositioning. Hence, what was being said about the transfer of the conflict outside the border has become a blatant reality which cannot be disregarded, whose repercussions cannot be ignored, and which cannot be met with impartiality, whether a positive or negative one. Also, a quick look at the neighboring states reveals the extent of the transformations that affected their policies. Israel, which was mainly preoccupied by the chemical weapons file and did not hesitate to raid a facility near Damascus, has become a party in the discussions surrounding the arming of the opposition. It thus explicitly warned against and opposed such a step, to avoid seeing these arms falling in the hands of extremist groups that have reached its northern border. Moreover, it is not concealing its concerns over Abu Muhammad al-Julani's command over Al-Nusrah Front, at a time when circles had previously tackled the possible establishment of a buffer zone in the Golan, from which the regime is evacuating positions to mobilize its troops in the capital among other locations. These concerns are also shared by Jordan, which is cautiously monitoring Abu Anas the Jordanian's command over Al-Nusrah's operations in the Syrian South and the flow of hundreds of Jordanians to fight in the Front's ranks. This is why Jordan did not hesitate to abandon its impartiality after it had committed to close the border in the face of the armed elements throughout the past two years. Since the beginning, it had refused to open its border before the passage of weapons to armed groups, while its questions to those pressuring it to open the border always revolved around the guarantees that these weapons will not fall in the hands of extremist powers, with which it would have to deal by use of force later on, whether Al-Assad collapses and the opposition wins or all of Syria slides towards chaos. This is simply due to the fact that it will not be able to deter the aftermath of this anarchy and will not be immune against the repercussions of the conflicts between the armed groups, at the head of which is Al-Nusrah Front. Moreover, it will never know calm if change in Damascus is similar to the one witnessed in Tunisia or Cairo! Jordan is not frightened by the threats issued by President Bashar al-Assad during his televised interview a few days ago, considering that the history between the two neighbors is filled with clashes, since the days of King Hussein and Hafez al-Assad. Indeed, the Baath regime in Damascus always looked at its southern neighbor the way it perceived the small brother Lebanon and the Palestine Liberation Organization and its factions. It thus used all its strength and pressure tools, even terror, to keep all of the latter underneath the Syrian cloak, as part of its domestic game and as a card in its foreign relations. However, Jordan is frightened today by two options, the sweetest of which is bitter. The first is the growing role of the extremist groups that have spread devastation in Iraq and did not spare Amman, while the second is the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, considering that this would give momentum to the Jordanian opposition led by the Islamic Action Front. But Jordan's relinquishing of its neutrality towards the Syrian crisis does not necessarily mean its uncalculated support to the opposition and its arming. This is due to the fact that there are critical internal calculations forcing its command to measure its steps accurately. Hence, it would be alright to facilitate the movement of Free Army fighters and disregard their provision with the necessary weapons, in order to allow them to act as a strong bloc in the face of the Jihadists and control a possible buffer zone if official Jordanian or international intervention is impossible to ensure the creation of such a zone due to the Russian-Chinese veto. The primary goal of this rush might not be the toppling of the regime, as long as the alternative is not yet defined. What is rather important at this stage is to stop the flow of refugees, considering that the Kingdom is no longer able to receive more people fleeing the raging war. In addition, its economy can no longer afford the provision of services to the refugees who have become a security and social time bomb, after they have started to compete with the country's population on the work market, are interacting daily with the developments on the Syrian arena, and might not be distant from what is happening on the Jordanian scene in the near future. Jordan, just like the remaining neighbors and the international community, fears the Syrian regime's chemical weapons reserves in case anarchy were to expand or surprises emerge. At this level, its reception of a few hundred American troops and its seeking of anti-missile batteries fall in the context of the Kingdom's preemptive measures. But these measures also serve other American goals, namely keeping Benjamin Netanyahu's government far away from any direct intervention in the Syrian crisis, just as the administration of George Bush Sr. wanted when it sent Patriot missiles to Israel during the Kuwait liberation war! This step aims to send a message to those threatening Jordan, whether Al-Assad or any other, and might play a future role in protecting regions liberated by the Free Army. There is also no doubt that Jordan's relinquishing of its neutrality and the beginning of its calculated and accurate involvement in the Syrian crisis is stripping its internal oppositionists of a main card, i.e. their repeated calls to help their Syrian brothers. But this does not mean that Jordan will settle for this level of implication and stay away from direct involvement. Indeed, it will not hesitate if it feels it should directly intervene to protect its internal security and the future of its regime, the last episode at this level being its non-reluctance to dispatch Special Forces to protect the oil wells in the Southern regions on the eve of the American invasion of Iraq. And while it is disregarding the closing of its northern border with Syria in the face of the fighters, this is allowing it to hit two birds with one stone: If the fighters crossing the border are from Al-Nusrah, they can leave and get depleted in the fight against the regime's forces. And if they are helping the so-called moderate forces in the Free Army, they will be able to confront the extremists and protect the border security. What is important is for the latter not to act as an additional force for the extremists or the Muslim Brotherhood group. These developments, from Netanyahu's position towards the arming of the opposition to the calculated change affecting the Jordanian stand and the arrival of a few hundred American troops to the Jordanian Kingdom, simply reveal that the arming of the opposition will remain open to the extent of preventing it from being exterminated by the regime. As for Syria's Friends, at the head of which are the French and British who met in Istanbul two days ago, they will become more confused in translating their enthusiasm to provide the opposition with efficient equipment. And as though the opposition of the United States and the European Union states was not enough, the Chechen attack in Boston came to confirm the seriousness of Al-Qaeda's deployment in Syria and enhance the fears of those opposing the fall of lethal weapons in the hands of the organization's elements. Therefore, the found in the Al-Nusrah card the pretext based on which they linked their reluctance to supply the opposition with the weapons it needs. The United States, Europe, Jordan, Israel and Turkey do not want to intervene directly on the field, and they certainly do not want an unmonitored flow of weapons into Syria. What they want is for the opposition to be able to free an area and protect it, in order to host hundreds of thousands of refugees which the neighboring states can no longer receive without creating trouble. They also want it to be able to persist until it is time for the political solution that would achieve the desired change, while maintaining the remaining structures of the Syrian state. What is required is probably two or three months until Iran chooses its new president. Indeed, did the American secretary of state not ask that all the parties to wait for the completion of this process? And until then, it is fine if the regime, its allies and especially its opponents among the Al-Qaeda followers and its offshoots are being depleted, if these states draw up their plans to face any surprise and if Lakhdar Brahimi waits instead of resigning. It is fine if he stays in place and be prepared for when the time comes, considering that he has nothing else to do since he personally recognized that his last report is the same as the one he presented three months ago. Syria's two other neighbors are also seizing this opportunity to prevent their direct implication on the field in Syria from transforming into a direct and open confrontation on the internal scene. Consequently, Nouri al-Maliki's government chose to head towards provincial council elections in the hope of defusing the political tensions in Iraq that is steadily heading towards the revival of the sectarian war which almost destroyed the country in the middle of last decade. Through these elections which are held for the first time following the American pullout from Iraq, the leader of the State of Law Coalition is hoping to renew his command, and use the results to face the parliamentary elections next year and especially his opponents. Lebanon on the other hand, which is preoccupied with the new government formation game, it should be worried about the presence of hundreds of thousands of refugees, who are not burdening its security and economy as much as they are threatening its frail sectarian and denomination fabric and its accurate and sensitive balance.
