The consensus over designating Beirut MP Tammam Salam to form the next Lebanese government shows that all sides at the moment want to avoid any confrontation or escalation inside the country. The discussions that will lead to forming such a government, as well as the conditions and counter-conditions that will be put forward, will reveal that such consensus does not mean that the Lebanese will be committing to a new roadmap that would bring their country out of its predicament. Moreover, such consensus expresses the need of all sides for some time to catch their breath and wait for what developments could bring, especially in Syria, as the current absence of clarity on the field and in international stances does not allow for determining the features of the coming phase, and the roles that will be played in it. Consensus over Salam as a person also shows that the various sides would currently be more at ease with a non-problematic figure who would contribute to filling time without taking provocative stances. This is why the March 8 Alliance, and especially Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, has supported the candidate of the March 14 Alliance, despite his being a member of the latter and his very close relationship qith the Future Movement and its leader, Saad Hariri. This means that such support is not political, but rather tactical, while waiting for what the coming days might bring. In any case, Salam will not be further away than his predecessor, Najib Mikati, was from the March 14 Alliance, and he is in fact presenting himself as its ally. His choices at the Arab level are also very clear. Even if he is not known to have taken harsh stances on Syria and its Lebanese allies, and most prominently Hezbollah, despite the clarity of his political affiliation, he falls under the category of political centrism and non-provocation. More importantly, he does not represent a large parliamentary bloc, which would place him in a position of strength if any confrontation were to be imposed on him. Since the Prime Minister-designate has committed in advance not to run as candidate in the coming parliamentary elections, his government cabinet should necessarily be an apolitical one. Its' primary and most essential task should become that of ensuring that the elections are held on time and on the basis of the “1960 law" – a law that has attracted, and continues to attract, the broadest campaign of rejection and defamation from all sides. What is talk of a national unity government, under the pretext of the necessity of expressing consensus, but an attempt to obtain political gains and to exploit the market of portfolio distribution and ministerial selection? This is what MP Michel Aoun tried to do, being greatly experienced in this regard. Indeed, for the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), what matters is not the significance and necessities of this political moment, but rather the personal ambitions and gains he could achieve through his parliamentary bloc. This is where lies the importance of Hezbollah, with its conflicting local and regional considerations, deals with Aoun's behavior, with regard to the prospective government and its formation. In any case, the change of government in Lebanon seems to have been imposed by developments in Syria. Even if some Lebanese parties are no longer as influenced as they once had been by the stances taken by Damascus, Hezbollah nevertheless has become part of the Syrian equation, and establishes its considerations in light of the latter's changes. In fact, the stance taken by Hezbollah on Salam's nomination reveals that such an equation is an unclear one, and that waiting for a clearer picture to emerge, on the background of what could be explained as submitting to circumstances, remains less harmful than waging the battle of nominating a Prime Minister at this time – this while knowing that the power and the initiative to turn the tables on everyone remains in the hands of Hezbollah, through its military power, as it did when it toppled the Hariri government and when it drove Mikati to resign.
