What do the Lebanese, specifically Maronite Lebanese, see in General Michel Aoun? He represents at least half of the people of his sect, and his alliance with Hezbollah gives him additional leverage in Lebanese politics, going beyond the size of his community and the influence it wields. I had hoped that the General would take advantage of the support he enjoys in his community, and his influence and alliances, to bring the ruling sects in Lebanon closer together. However, I find him to be an element of dispute, not agreement. While we have a handful of sects, power is shared by three major ones, each with its own problem or problems. The Maronites will never return to their leading position in running the country, like the one they had up until 1975, because of new demographic realities. The problem of the Sunnis, or March 14, meanwhile, is that they lack supporters in the Shiite community, while the Shiites have no supporters among the Sunnis. In such a situation, General Michel Aoun could have played a salvaging role in Lebanon, by reconciling the various sects and their leaders, instead of becoming yet another element of dispute. If he did that (I am writing a criticism of him because I believe that he is still able to play a positive, decisive and important role), he would be doing great service by his community and country, and would open a bright new chapter in his personal track record. The General lost both the War of Annihilation and the War of Liberation, and made his way into exile through the French Embassy. He later returned to lead the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which is backed by half of the Maronites, including lawyers, doctors and judges. Yet, even within the FPM, General Aoun did not attempt to build a political party with institutions, a program and a leadership hierarchy, because everything in the FPM is decided by the General alone. I find the popularity of General Aoun strange, or inexplicable. I have been asking people the question that I started with for years now, and the answers I get range from being half reasonable to the outright absurd. Yet, they do not include any satisfactory answers. I heard for instance that his supporters love him because they hate Samir Geagea, or that a segment of the Maronites still wants to restore the position they had but lost by being defeated in the Civil War, and through the Taif Agreement. I also hear from people who attend private meetings with him that he is siding with the Rejectionist Front in order to protect Christians, should the latter win. But if the other side wins, then the Christians in March 14 will protect them. Or even that he is siding with Hezbollah, and the Arab Shiite minority behind it, to resist the dominant Sunni Arab tide and preserve Lebanon as the country of minorities. I hear many other explanations, but in the end when I reexamine the General's influence in his community and Lebanon, I find no explanation for it. He is not as alluring as Camille Chamoun, as upstanding as Fouad Chehab and Raymond Edde, or as eloquent as Edwar Hunein or the Maaloufs. He sometimes appears to be the opposite of these leaders, as he criticizes the local political discourse even when his own contains obscenities that do not belong in the Lebanese political lexicon. Also, some of his stances cannot be defended. For example, everyone remembers how he objected to the appointment of Nassib Lahoud as minister, because the latter lost the elections and how he waged a campaign against him. Yet, we saw him insist on appointing his son in law Gebran Bassil as minister, even though he lost the elections twice, to the extent that members of the FPM itself protested against this insistence. General Michel Aoun returned to Lebanon from his exile in 2005 with a heavy burden. There was nothing in his military and political past to be proud of, and yet, half of his community quickly handed over their reins to him. This is despite the fact that he does not belong to any of the known Maronite families, and that his rise from exile to the limelight of Lebanese politics was that of a soldier from the ranks, an expression well understood by the General. I hope that General Aoun will act as an officer whose knowledge was refined by successive military training at home and abroad, and not as a solider with limited knowledge. He will both gain and benefit if he surrounds himself with a circle of advisers. There are enough of those in the FPM, although I wish that his Lebanese advisers would include some from outside his narrow circle in order to expand the scope of discussions. General Michel Aoun can play a positive role, and possibly even a decisive role, in helping Lebanon find a way out of its successive crises. However, he does not. Instead, he demands a vetoing third in the new government, without any logic or merit, exacerbating the difficulties already facing the Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati. All I can say here is: God help you, Najib; if these are your friends, then who needs enemies? I ask again, what do the Lebanese see in General Michel Aoun? I hope that he will surprise us all by playing the required positive reconciliatory role, which would mark his political legacy. [email protected]
