Explosive charges are being successively planted in Lebanon's fragile body. The worrisome map is exposed to both inside and outside winds. What is left of the state is in tatters and is being eroded further. It is as though the ‘Lebanese arena' is being asked to commit suicide and not to take too long to do so. I am not saying that the Lebanese are innocent of this and are only victims. Indeed, divisions among them are very sharp and there is a high number of risk-lovers, and relations among the sects and communities of Lebanon are at their worst. The President of the country at risk of catching fire received a letter from King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, calling on him to act quickly to prevent this fire from breaking out, and warning against the choices that would pave the way for such a fire. The Lebanese leaders should ponder thoroughly what the letter had to say. The Saudi King once sponsored the only serious attempt to prevent Lebanon from falling into the abyss. Back then, those efforts were called “S-S" [i.e. Saudi Arabia-Syria]. The undermining of that attempt caused massive damage to Lebanon and to Syria's Arab and international relations. If those efforts had succeeded, Beirut today would not be reeling to the tune of sectarian tensions, and who knows, perhaps even Damascus would have been less anxious than it is now. It was no secret that what is happening in Syria is more than Lebanon can bear. The damage that followed was expected, but what is surprising is how quick the Lebanese disintegration has taken place, as well as this country's lack of the bare minimum of immunity. The deterioration of the state portends dire consequences. A dangerous incident like the one that claimed the lives of two Sunni clerics in Akkar almost caused a major fire. A dangerous incident like the abduction of the young Lebanese Shiites in Aleppo almost caused another major fire. Luckily, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri acted prudently and responsibly following the first incident, and luckily, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah rushed to contain the angry reactions that ensued after the second. But one initiative is not enough to block the path to a fire. The country is disintegrating in a disintegrating region. There is no need to pore over the Iraqi scene at length. It is both clear and blatant. There are some who believe that Syria itself is sliding towards a long and bloody civil crisis that it will not exit except through solutions along the lines of what is seen in Iraq, even if the terms federalism and autonomous regions are not used officially. The impact of these scenes on Lebanon is no simple matter, since Lebanon, to begin with, is built on a quasi-federal formula that engenders a civil war whenever the balance of power among the semi-autonomous regions is shaken. After the regretful incident in Akkar, and regardless of the circumstances that surrounded it, the military institution in Lebanon was dragged into the quagmire of Lebanese infighting. Voices were raised to accuse the army of accepting to maintain only a nominal and symbolic presence in one region, while attempting to impose its authority in another. The army was accused of coexisting with other weapons in the first, while seeking disarmament in the second. These are the fruits of the Sunni-Shiite dichotomy over the ‘weapons of the resistance', which to the Sunni community are now merely ‘Hezbollah's weapons'. This threatens to cause the Lebanese army to reduce its presence and withdraw to the weakest region, where leadership is contested between General Michel Aoun and Dr. Samir Geagea. The tragedy here does not lie in weak states, feeble governments or powerless parliaments. Before all this, it lies in the revelation that political entities on the map have become ailing, and that the latent semi-autonomous regions are calling for their own official names and for recognition following the failure of coexistence because of tyranny, and the lack of the culture of accepting the others and their right to disagree. Experience tells us that manipulating maps has a steep price, and that drafting the borders of the regions within them is fraught with funerals, forced displacements and violations. The Lebanese map for its part is also ailing, and the national fabric is torn. However, a rational analysis indicates that a serious Lebanese state would protect Shiites from horrific clashes, Sunnis from a costly adventure and Christians from further emigration. The choice is clear: Either move away from the mentality of fragmented regions to the mentality of the state, or drown in the fire of sectarian strife and protracted wars.
