When there is a lot of news about a country, it demonstrates one thing: the country in question is facing a sharp crisis, or a huge problem. I receive news every morning from the traditional media and new media, and some research centers, especially in the United States. While my sources have not changed, in recent months I have noticed a huge increase in news about Syria (and Iran), which means that conditions or bad, or dangerous. There is no news if a country enjoys civil peace and economic prosperity; rather, it comes with murder, violence and economic collapse. The uprising in Syria has entered its eleventh month and I do not see it ending quickly, even if the US, Europe, Turkey and the Arab League want President Bashar Assad to step down. Or, it will continue, because these countries are asking for him to step down. I think the president has taken a decision to continue the confrontation with his opponents until the end, and no senior official has abandoned him, as in the case of Muammar Gaddafi, while the opposition does not want to negotiate with this president and his regime. Syria has no allies left except Iran and Russia, and perhaps Iraq and China. It receives weapons, as the opposition receives weapons, but neither side in the confrontation has enough weapons, money and international support to defeat the other side. The Arab League's plan requires the president to cede power to his vice-president, and the formation of a national unity government. I do not know why the Arab League assumed that Bashar Assad would accept this "solution," or why it also assumed that the Security Council could help, since it knew that Russia and China had used their veto in October, to prevent a resolution against the Syrian regime that was much "lighter" than the recent proposals. We are now hearing that "the president stepping down" was struck from the draft resolution, so that Russia would not use its veto. Nonetheless, the attempts to satisfy Russia failed and it used the veto, along with China. They blocked the adoption of a draft resolution that was amended, and watered down. Once again, the Syrian president will not give up power voluntarily. There is no logical reason to expect foreign military intervention, as what happened in Libya, to bring down the regime, as Barack Obama wants. The American president said in his state of the union address last month that Muammar Gaddafi had gone, and quickly added, "In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can't be reversed, and that human dignity can't be denied." Toppling the Syrian regime requires more than the desire of the American president, or the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe, to see him fall. I know that the regime prefers to hear that terrorists and fundamentalist extremists are behind the killing in Syria every day, and that the opposition wants to hear that the regime will fall tomorrow. However, the truth lies elsewhere. The regime will continue with its "security approach," and even escalate. The killing increases, as we are seeing in Homs, despite the fact that this is a failed policy and the opposition is divided on important issues, such as foreign intervention. Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army claims that it has 15,000 defectors in its ranks; the actual figure might be around 7,000. Many of these FSA groups work independently of each other, and have no centralized leadership. Personally, I see no prompt solution to the ongoing Syrian catastrophe, although I am with the Syrians, and neither the regime nor the opposition. My only request, in the absence of a solution, is to halt the killing of people. This was my request when I first commented on the situation, last April, and in every subsequent article on the topic since then. I will go further and say I have no confidence in the plans for reforms and elections and other items put forward by the government; I have less trust in the intentions of the US and Russia. The American president is saying what he should say against a regime that continues to kill, and Russia might change its stance of defending the regime if it receives something from the US on one of the divisive issues between the two countries. Meanwhile, I see the news on Syria (and Iran) is increasing day by day, to reflect the rise in the sharpness of the crisis and the levels of violence. I ask for only mercy for the Syrian people from its enemies, and from those who claim to be their friends. [email protected]
