9 erring body care centers shut in Riyadh    20,000 military emblems confiscated in Riyadh    Al-Samaani visits headquarters of Hague Conference on Private International Law    KSrelief provided over $7bln to support children around the world    Al-Jasser: Saudi Arabia to expand rail network to over 8,000 km    OMODA&JAECOO: Unstoppable global cumulative sales over 360,000 units    Saudi Arabia sees 73.7% rise in investment licenses in Q3 2024    Al Hilal doesn't need extra support to bring new players, CEO says    Rust premieres at low-key film festival three years after shooting    Fate of Gaetz ethics report uncertain after congressional panel deadlocked    Ukraine fires UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at Russia for first time    Netanyahu offers $5 million and safe passage out of Gaza to anyone returning a hostage    Indian billionaire Gautam Adani indicted in New York on fraud charges    Rafael Nadal: Farewell to the 'King of Clay'    Indonesia shocks Saudi Arabia with 2-0 victory in AFC Asian Qualifiers    Sitting too much linked to heart disease –– even if you work out    Yemeni Orchestra's captivating performances in Riyadh, showcasing shared cultural legacies    Future of Ronaldo's Al Nassr contract remains undecided, says Saudi Pro League CEO    GASTAT report: 45.1% of Saudis are overweight    Denmark's Victoria Kjær Theilvig wins Miss Universe 2024    Order vs. Morality: Lessons from New York's 1977 Blackout    India puts blockbuster Pakistani film on hold    The Vikings and the Islamic world    Filipino pilgrim's incredible evolution from an enemy of Islam to its staunch advocate    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Hezbollah and the Syrian Variable
Published in AL HAYAT on 09 - 12 - 2011

During a speech on the 10th day of Ashura, the leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, used the term "variables" three times, while affirming that the resistance would survive, along with its weapons. He was talking about those who were wagering on these variables, as if they wanted to achieve what Israel could not, through Lebanon's National Dialogue, and their focus on the future of the party's weapons.
Nasrallah displayed a hard-line stance with regard to the party's retaining its arms, which is natural, but the use of the term "variables" is something new, compared to his earlier rhetoric. Even if Nasrallah did not say that by variables he meant a change in Syria, as a conduit of weapons to the party and its fighters, and its number one regional ally and for Iran. The new element is that for the first time, he was indicating the possibility of changes in Damascus. In doing so, Nasrallah was telling his local and regional rivals that all of these possibilities will not lead to a change in the basis of Hezbollah's policy in Lebanon, or in its long-standing policies on its weapons.
The earlier political line of Nasrallah and the party's leaders was completely different. Only two weeks ago, they affirmed confidently that the Syrian regime would survive, and would not change; it would not fall, and it would be stronger than before. In fact, for the last nine months, during the Syrian uprising, they were affirming to this or that group, and to this or that ally, what was being said by the pillars of the Syrian regime – the crisis was over, and that only the "remnants of armed gangs" remained. These groups were being pursued by the army and security forces, and eliminating them was a matter of days, or a week or two.
Some Lebanese allies of the Syrian regime told their interlocutors, as they looked at their watches, that at such-and-such a time the uprising in Deraa (or Hama, Homs, Idlib, Jisr al-Shughur, etc.) would be over, and the mopping up of rebels would begin. Some of those who heard such talk believed it, while others did not, and contented themselves by waiting things out. Then, a few weeks later, they would once again ask about what had happened to the military end to the unrest, promised by this or that Syrian leader, and receive a similar response, but about another area of the country. However, the leadership of Hezbollah was acting as if it could do nothing other than wager on the regime's success in crushing the uprisings. Party leaders felt that the future of Hezbollah, its role and its strength depended on the survival of their ally the Syrian president, irrespective of his problems with wide segments of the Syrian public.
Those who received promises that the military option would decide things, in favor of the regime of Bashar Assad, became fed up with hearing this scenario repeated without it coming to pass. The leaders of Hezbollah themselves must have become fed up with this broken record.
This prompted a debate within the party, about its options and policies in the event the wager fails on the Syrian regime's survival, or if it remains in power, with a fundamental change in its policies, including its actions in Lebanon. The party's leadership had earlier closely followed the beginning of the crisis, and advised the acceleration of reforms, and non-reliance on a "security solution," while opening dialogue with the opposition. However, the Syrian leadership dealt with this advice as it did with the advice of others (Turkey, Qatar, the Gulf States) at the beginning of the crisis, by refusing to act on it, under the pretext that Syria did not need such advice, and that its leadership was better informed about its own affairs.
It is no exaggeration to say that Hezbollah is behaving anxiously vis-à-vis the possibility of change in Syria, and has begun to make calculations to head off the repercussions of this variable.
But the worrying thing in how the party views this possibility is that it is adopting a policy of waiting for change in Syria and is waiting for it to happen, without acknowledging this. Hezbollah and its allies blamed the leader of the Future Movement, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and the leaders of the March 14 coalition for wishing to expedite the fall of the Syrian regime, and placing their bets that this collapse would lead to a change in the local balance of power; they considered this intervention in Syria's domestic affairs. But what they blame their rivals for, they are guilty of themselves as well, when they ignore the impact of the possibility of change in Lebanon, and change in Hezbollah's regional status in the domestic political equation. It is a case of intervention, but in the opposite direction: against the aspirations of the Syrian people for change, and against the arrival of the "Arab spring" in Syria.
It is also worrying that Hezbollah, instead of striving to adapt to the situation with flexibility, has resorted to a hard-line stance that might lead it to act too harshly. It refuses to acknowledge that the Syrian variable might end up changing its superior position in the domestic balance of power, which it has obtained thanks to Syria's previous role, built on suppressing one group at the expense of another. This means that the party, up to know, is leaning toward believing its leading position in the current Lebanese domestic political formula as an acquired right, with no reduction in its domestic political weight by any change in the Syrian role. This is why Hezbollah has started warning its adversaries to not "think" that its power will decline, and that it will continue to benefit from the Syrian assistance that it has received in recent years, even if "changes" take place.
And this means that whatever the case, Lebanon is in for a hard time.


Clic here to read the story from its source.