Obama is angry and Sarkozy is dejected, as the Syrian regime has managed to dodge condemnation at the Security Council. By contrast, Medvedev cannot help but rejoice over the response of the “leader” Putin, to the Western coup in Libya, by orchestrating a more resonating one in Syria. This is Moscow's response to the “philosophy of confrontation” chosen by the European draft resolution under American auspices, to condemn the crackdown on the civilians taking to the streets in Syria. The Russian-Chinese veto at the Security Council was certainly not good news for the Syrian opposition and its parties. Indeed, two days ago, it looked as though the birth of the Syrian National Council would dispel the pretexts of Western reluctance with regard the dilemma of how to protect civilians, and mark the beginning of the actual course of internationalization in the face of the vicious cycle of killing. However, the council's birth moved the Russian position – and the Chinese one with it – from that of opposition and negotiations over amendments to the draft resolution, to confrontation up to dealing it a coup de grace. The Council's birth motivated the West, which was reassured by a Russian flexibility, but which soon dissipated to pave the way for thwarting the resolution. And while Washington was shocked by the Russian leap in an arena that might be considered by Moscow as being its precious card in the Middle East, in reality, Putin can claim to have learned the Iraqi lesson, and especially the Libyan one that is still vivid in his mind. In truth, this is related to Russia's perceived interests, rather than Russian concerns over American ambitions. This is especially valid as the United States seems to have relinquished the responsibility for the internationalization of human rights issues to its allies in NATO, in the hope that the dust of the Arab Spring and the possible wars in the region will be able to cover the retreat of US military convoys from Iraq and Afghanistan. The Kremlin does not fear, at present, seeing NATO's gaze fixate on human rights issues in the Caucasus and Chechnya. Rather, Moscow is wagering on an opportunity it sees perfect, at a moment when the West and its American umbrella are going through economic troubles and attempting to contain the anger of a people that is being called upon to accept living with more poverty and an increased number of poor citizens. Moscow does not believe that NATO is not waiting for the number of the civilian victims in Syria to increase by a few thousand more, before leaning on a “moral predicament” that would allow the Security Council to react, and replicate the Libyan scenario in the heart of the Middle East. As for the Russian justification of the “confrontation” witnessed inside the Council, this probably does not promise the Syrians anything better than mobile killing waves similar to the ones seen between the Sixtieth and Seventieth Streets in Sana'a, ever since Ali Saleh extended his confrontation against “opportunists” (who are by the millions). The best way out [according to Russia] at the level of the proposals that paved the way for and accompanied the veto, is “for the Syrians to meet under international auspices, as it is happening in Yemen”! One may think that Moscow is living on another planet, regardless of its insistence on calling the military invasions of Syrian cities and towns mere “harsh measures” that are very distant from the “violence of the extremists and infiltrators in the ranks of the dissidents”! One out of 24 hours was enough for the “shadow president” in the Kremlin, i.e. Vladimir Putin, to respond to the Libyan coup, this time in Syria. It is therefore a confrontation with the West, and one that will definitely last a long time, and is not unrelated to the Iranian escalation against the “missile shield” radar in Turkey and floundering American-Russian relations over this shield's ramifications. But the first test following the veto to prevent the condemnation of the Syrian regime – Moscow's and Tehran's ally – must be primarily Turkish. The Security Council resolution was supposed to be preceded by Ankara's hands-on entry into the heart of the Syrian events through a “buffer zone” on the border, designed to protect refugees and defecting officers and soldiers from Syria. But this scenario was reversed, and the more Erdogan is escalating his tone toward Israel, the more concerns there are over a possible clash on the border between a Turkish ally that has changed its gloves – and sided with the Syrian street – and a regime that sees nothing on the street but the shadows and fingers of conspiracy. The former ally is preparing for exacting punishment, while the regime in Damascus is definitely going to move – following the “historical” blow of the Russian veto– to a new stage in crushing the “conspirators,” wagering on a Turkish predicament both domestically and on the border. Moscow's decision marks a bad start for the Syrian National Council that has endorsed the goal of toppling the regime and its head. But what is more important for the Syrians on the internal arena is that this decision has overlooked thousands of victims and will not be able to attenuate the confrontation by merely claiming to be concerned about a civil war that would destabilize the whole of the Middle East. As for the difficult test today, it is related to Erdogan and his “Syrian” promises. Perhaps this test is imminent, and indeed perilous.
