Following his surprising return to Sana'a after months of treatment in Saudi Arabia, President Ali Abdullah Saleh tried to spread a climate of optimism in regard to the possible achievement of a fast and peaceful resolution for the crisis affecting the rule, especially since before his return, the president had met with the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah Bin Abdul-Aziz in Riyadh. This attempt coincided with a noticeable change in the United States' position - which is his main supporter - as it relinquished its traditional calls for a solution via dialogue with the opposition and asked the president to step down. This gave the impression there was a regional-American (international) consensus to convince the Yemeni president that the time for the solution has come, through the immediate implementation of the Gulf initiative which is still the only one on the table, and the quick relinquishing of his powers to his deputy Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi who is supervising the transitional stage. However, the preludes for this solution are still unavailable on the ground. Indeed, the infiltration of the head of a state into his country at dawn, and without any ceremonies or cameras, cannot only be explained by the security precautions after he was subjected to an attempted assassination that forced him to head to Saudi Arabia to receive treatment. It rather reveals a realization – by the president and those close to him – of the fact that the time has not yet come for a solution that would please the opposition, and that there is a new round in which the president must engage. What points to that is the security situation on the ground, especially in Sana'a where it suffered a major setback following the targeting of the demonstrators opposed to the president on Change Square. This in turn led to a response by dissident military forces, at a time when the tribal division between those who are with and those who are against the president has become one on the field and is being translated in clashes between both sides. This new situation in Sana'a had started surfacing before the president's return, with armed confrontations between loyal and dissident military forces and armed confrontations between loyalist and opposing tribesmen. If one were to add to this bleak image the numerous regional, tribal and political contradictions seen in Yemen, the characteristics of civil war - which has so far been avoided with great difficulty and under massive foreign pressures – would become complete. Hence, the question is: Did the president return to defuse this war, sign the Gulf initiative to confirm his conviction in the necessity of peacefully transferring power, or did he return to overlook this new stage of the conflict? Ali Saleh could have announced his decision to step down from Riyadh, transferred power to his deputy and directly sent his signature to Hadi or the general secretariat of the Gulf Cooperation Council to launch the stage of the solution and the peaceful transition of power. However, he decided to return to Sana'a the way it was seen, which implies that such an inclination – even if it exists – will not be undertaken as fast as required, with all that this means in terms of further deterioration and the preparation for the upcoming bleak stage. And regardless of the president's intentions, there are many strong-headed people in his political and familial surrounding pushing toward security escalation to elude the transition of power, considering that this would undermine their economic interests and their political and military influence. The latter – just like the president himself did in the past – are using the pretext of the constitutional deadlines, while disregarding the extraordinary and catastrophic circumstances in the country, along with the local and foreign powers that are in agreement over the necessity of immediately launching the transitional stage.
