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Syria the Worried, Syria the Worrisome
Published in AL HAYAT on 27 - 06 - 2011

This happened decades ago. Syria looked around it and became worried once again. Israel is an offensive occupier and its American ally guarantees its military supremacy. Soviet weapons help in resistance and dissidence and do not suffice to free the land. Demographically speaking, Turkey is a large country in the region. There is a conflict over the land between Syria and Turkey, as well as old and new fears. Ataturk's country has a secular constitution, is a member of NATO, and has relations with Israel.
The Iraqis have an exceptional wealth of black gold. Iraq is also worried whenever it looks at Turkey and Iran. At times, the ambitions of Iraq's ruler exceed the country's borders. There is an old competition on roles between Baghdad and Damascus, which has turned into a bitter conflict between the two Baaths.
There is also Jordan on the border. It is a worried kingdom, with limited resources. It constantly needs a formula to protect its stability: an international umbrella, a trained army, and a dynamic king who weathers storms and interprets transformations.
On the border lies also Lebanon, whose structure prevented it from falling in the traps of military coups and of the single party. At times, it appears as if it were the lungs of the region's countries, but its freedoms, newspapers, and windows pose questions and trigger concerns.
Between its worried and its worrisome neighbors, Syria attempted to find its role and its stability – as well as a formula to protect itself from the struggle. The search ended with a strict formula on the domestic level and with moving the battle outside the borders. The role became linked to owning cards within the borders of neighboring countries, and to the influential presence in the Arab decision-making process and the Arab-Israeli conflict and the ability to hinder the suggested projects more than the ability to offer solutions. Syria is an ally of the Soviet Union without giving it its decision-making and without forgetting Washington's importance. Syria is an ally of Khomeini's Iran, without forgetting the importance of the Egypt-Saudi-Syria triangle, despite Camp David. The growing Syrian role clashed with the roles of others and with the great players. The worried country turned into a worrisome country that became a problem in the region.
Bashar al-Assad became president of a country that plays a [significant] role in the region. He added a tight relation with Turkey to the alliance with Iran. However, the growth of the Iranian role brought turmoil to the relations of his country inside the Arab triangle. He sent early on signals that domestic stability is not sufficient to protect this role, as he was aware of his country's economy and its need for modernization. His mission was not a simple one. The network of enshrined interests resisted the fearful attempt for change. The party's old apparatus and the security apparatus appeared to be stronger than he believed. Also, the fears of the structure played their role. Al-Assad got preoccupied with the external battles following the invasion of Iraq and the July War, and thus the difficulties on the internal level increased, in a changing world that put Syria on the list of worrisome countries.
Reforms on the internal level were belated. There are great demographic increases, high unemployment rates, an ancient administration, and the party still uses an old jargon. After the Arab spring was launched, the spark reached Syria. The Western countries that used to encourage the Syrian regime to change its behavior on the external level, are asking it today to change its behavior on the internal level as well. Syria is experienced in resisting external pressures, but it used to rely on stability domestically.
It is a different picture today.
A calm reading of one hundred days of crisis in Syria with its protests and reform promises, excessive security practices, and losses on the inside and the outside, prompts us to believe that the only exit lies in a project that returns Syria to its normal state – i.e. neither worried nor worrisome. It would be a country with a regime based on a plurality that would implement reconciliation on the inside and support a natural role that would facilitate a reconciliation on the outside.
A visiting journalist in Ankara would hear that President al-Assad's leading of this transformation remains the less costly option. A worried Syria drowning in turmoil would also be worrisome for the region.


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