The incidents that took place between UNIFIL peacekeeping troops and some residents of South Lebanon villages would not have caused such a commotion, had it not been for fears about the future. There are concerns that the course of events, and the regional conditions related to South Lebanon, is going to lead to a lifting of international protection for this part of Lebanon, which has experienced wars and other tragedies since the 1970s. This protection prevents such wars from re-igniting. The source of these fears was not the limited clashes between UNIFIL troops and “some” villagers in the south, as the UN Representative for South Lebanon, Michael Williams, put it, stressing the “some.” The Lebanese-international mobilization that followed the events and the commotion that arose was sufficient to treat the repercussions on the political level, and on the ground, as we have seen in recent days. But the fears in question are being generated by the tension being experienced in the Middle East, beginning with the harsher sanctions on Iran, internationally, as well as the stricter measures by the European Union and the United States. There is also the unproductive movement toward resuming peace talks on the Palestinian track, and the talk of a coming indictment in the Rafiq Hariri assassination case. Even though there is no firm evidence that we can rely on in linking these regional issues (sanctions, stalled peace negotiations, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon) to the UNIFIL incidents in South Lebanon, fears have been raised that the latter will be the beginning of the end of protection for that part of the country. In other words, it will go beyond sending messages related to one or more of these three regional items. This is due to the continuing obsession with the possibility of a war against Lebanon being waged, even though most officials concerned with the issue believe this to be unlikely at present. This requires a preparatory period, or the preparation for the lifting this international protection, when it is time for this costly option. Thus, the pressure on UNIFIL is not limited to “some” people in the south. It began with the Israelis, and their daily violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. They refuse to make any progress on withdrawing from the Shebaa Farms, and they have used the issue of withdrawing from Ghajar to toy with Lebanon and international officials for four years. The Israelis drown UNIFIL with statements about the existence of rockets south of the Litani River, weapons stockpiles, and a military infrastructure of Hizbullah, to create a climate hinting that the UN is unable to implement 1701 and deal violations by the other side. This is used to justify violations by Israel, whose minister of defense said a few years ago that the resolution was useless. Even though Israeli officials repeat that they have no intention to attack Lebanon every time a wave of fears arises, causing UNIFIL to lose its credibility, by increasing the pressure on it, this is the beginning of the process of ending international protection for the south, when the war option becomes more likely. Meanwhile, the incidents between UNIFIL and “some” people lead to the former's loss of stature and credibility, and enshrine its inability to implement 1701. A dispute arose between the Lebanese Army and the UNIFIL leadership, over the type of drill that the latter conducted last month, and led, in the view of countries contributing forces to UNIFIL, to Hezbollah's mobilization of “some” villagers. If this is the case, then the practical result has been another “drill”, or a counter-deployment at the Bir Salalsil triangle in the south, and in surrounding villages. International officials read this as a signal that the various UNIFIL units could be cut off from each other. This led UNIFIL, and all officials in the countries with UNIFIL involvement, and at the UN, to stress the need to preserve “freedom of movement.” In this sense, the events in the south “probed” the dangers of paving the way for a lifting of international protection for the south, but from the Lebanese side this time. This is because the events are prompting UNIFIL-participating states into considering the advantages they gain by being present, if there is shaken trust between UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army, and the people of the south; and if it senses that the Lebanese authorities do not sense the gravity of the situation… What took place was a drill for all sides. The most important thing is that the “some” realized that the majority of people in the south felt the danger of probing the lifting of their protection.
