In this column, I wrote on the day of elections for Iraq's Parliament that the only guaranteed result would be the loser accusing the winner of fraud, and this is what took place. Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and his allies on the Iraqiya list claimed that ballots supporting them were ignored or destroyed, that ballot boxes were discovered discarded outside polling stations, and that 250,000 soldiers were prevented from exercising their right to vote. The Iraqi National Alliance also complained about vote fraud. My expectation of accusations of fraud was easy, as it is a feature of the entire third world, and not just Iraq and other Arab countries. However, expecting a Cabinet line-up that will be produced by the elections is more difficult. The competing lists produced a close result, and the new government, like the current one, will be a collation, which means months of bazaar-type bargaining. The initial results indicate that State of Law List, headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, is in the lead, followed by the Iraqi National Alliance, which groups the Supreme Council, the Sadrists and the Reform movement led by Ibrahim Jaafari. There are also the Kurdish parties, which divide up Iraqi Kurdistan, and vote as a single bloc in Parliament. Up to now, there have been no surprises. The Shiites are the majority in Iraq, and the two Shiite lists have divided the vote, after around 80 percent were counted. The Sadrists had their best results in Baghdad, especially in the poverty-stricken Sadr City, which is their base. In fact, Baghdad is the most important electoral province, as it has MPs from all sects and ethnicities. There are six million people and the final results are expected to see al-Maliki's list win a big majority of the capital's voters, while the Alliance will have better results in the southern provinces. The complications begin after the above has been completed. Al-Maliki insists on the prime minister's position in any alliance, and the logical one would be between the two Shiite lists and the Kurds. However, the prime minister has as many enemies as supporters, and many Arab countries do not want him. Meanwhile, the Sadrists believe that he has failed or deceived them, or even betrayed them, after he helped them gain power four years ago, then abandoned them and fought them. Perhaps the Supreme Council would like a new person in the post, and has put forward the name of Ali al-Adeeb, the number two man in the Dawa Party after al-Maliki. However, al-Adeeb is weak. Perhaps his name is being floated more to annoy al-Maliki rather than serve as something serious. Al-Maliki faces difficulties with the Kurds; they are angry because the prime minister has failed them on many issues that have to do with his centralized rule, oil production and the division of revenues, and the future of Kirkuk, which is being demanded by the Kurds, while the Turkmen insist it is their city, and Turkey supports them on this. Al-Maliki remains the strongest player and the leading candidate to become the next prime minister. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a coalition of his rivals uniting against him and agreeing on Dr. Iyad Allawi, or accepting a candidate put forward by the head of the Iraqiya list. The new government will not be formed in a week, or a month. The experts believe the negotiations, maneuvers and bargaining might take two months at the least, and perhaps four or five. Meanwhile, the al-Maliki government will continue in a caretaker capacity. While I cannot claim anything when it comes to the make-up of the next Iraqi Cabinet, I expect it to be weak, because the disputes and differences among Iraqi politicians are profound. Even if two or three groups can transcend them and form a government in which they divide up the spoils, the disputes will rise to the surface from time to mine. The danger here is from the latent disputes finding their expression in terror; violence was limited during the campaign, but the terrorists are waiting for opportunities. They might find them with the beginning of the countdown to a US withdrawal, or if Iraqi politicians are unable to put the country's interests ahead of their own, personal ones, or if foreign intervention with certain parties and figures continues. Naturally, there is nothing easier than accusing foreign countries or interests of sabotaging Iraq's road to democracy. However, foreign intervention is not possible without their being helpers and agents in Iraq. Thus, Iraq, which accuses others of terror, should look at itself first, if it wants to see good come to the country. Personally, I will not choose between al-Maliki and Allawi. The former made efforts to spread the rule of law, but he has many enemies at home and abroad; half of the people are opponents of whoever takes power. Allawi leads a secular alliance that Iraq needs to exit the sectarian division of power, which was brought by the Americans. However, he picked up the votes of Sunni with a majority Shiite population and the decision should go to the majority. I hope that the rulers of Iraq are led by reason and hope that God has mercy on the Iraqi people, who have suffered enough, and more. [email protected]
