Switzerland's economy will start to show growth in the last quarter of this and early next year, but labour markets will remain hard hit, UBS AG, the country's biggest bank, said in a study Thursday, according to dpa. Meanwhile, its cross-town rival, Credit Suisse, said 67.5 per cent of financial market analysts it surveyed predict that "economic momentum will pick up in the coming six months." A smaller majority still viewed the economic situation as "bad." UBS data ahead of the fourth quarter "indicates that there will be a slight upturn in growth compared with a year ago, suggesting the Swiss economy is probably out of recession." "While the export and financial services sectors seem to have overcome the negative shocks for now, the impact on the rest of the economy is yet to come," UBS economists wrote, expecting "the unemployment rate for next year to be well above the level for this year." Credit Suisse too said 87.5 per cent of the specialists anticipated the jobless rate will grow in a six-month time-frame. Direct year-on-year comparisons, analysts have noted, can be misleading, as 2008 saw massive declines and low growth in the recovery would not return the economy to the same levels before the crisis. Swiss government and central bank forecasts have also warned of rising unemployment, which could peak at 5.5 per cent next year. Before the financial crisis hit, unemployment in the Alpine land was below 3 per cent. It currently hovers at about 3.8 per cent. "Thus, next year for many may feel worse than the growth outlook would suggest," UBS said in the study. dpa sg ncs
