A closely watched gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose more than expected in June on more homebuilding plans, higher stock prices, and fewer workers filing jobless claims, a private research organization reported Monday. It was the third consecutive monthly improvement in the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year. The index, designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months, rose 0.7 percent in June, nearly double the increase expected by analysts. The index rose 1.3 percent in May and 1 percent in April. If such conditions continue, “expect a slow recovery this autumn,” said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. The index hit bottom in March after peaking in July 2007. The decline accelerated last autumn after investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed and credit markets froze. In June, seven of the 10 indicators rose, including building permits, stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods. Holding back the index were consumer expectations, manufacturers' orders for capital goods, and the real money supply.
