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Leading economic indicators up more than expected
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 18 - 06 - 2009


A private research group's forecast of
economic activity rose in May by the largest amount in more
than five years, the latest sign that the recession is
easing, according to AP.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of
leading economic indicators _ designed to forecast activity
in the next three to six months _ rose 1.2 percent, the
biggest gain since March 2004. Economists surveyed by
Thomson Reuters expected a 0.9 percent increase in May.
The New York-based group said activity in the six-month
period through May also rose 1.2 percent _ the first time
that measure has grown since April 2007. The April reading
was revised up to a 1.1 percent gain from 1 percent.
«The recession is losing steam,» said Conference Board
economist Ken Goldstein. «If these trends continue, expect
a slow recovery beginning before the end of the year.»
However, Goldstein said the job market will take longer to
rebound.
The Labor Department on Thursday said the total number of
people filing for unemployment insurance fell by 148,000 to
nearly 6.7 million in the week ending June 6.
That was the largest drop in more than seven years and
snapped a streak of 19 straight record-highs. Initial
claims for jobless aid, meanwhile, rose 3,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week.
Seven of the Conference Board index's 10 components grew
in May, including money supply, building permits, consumer
expectations, stock prices and vendors' deliveries of
supplies to companies.
But employment factors _ claims for jobless aid and weekly
manufacturing hours _ weighed down the index, as did the
level of manufacturers' orders for consumer goods.
While conditions are in place for a rebound later this
year, «prospects of a recovery are still fragile,» said
Sal Gautieri, economist at BMO Capital Markets. «There's
no guarantees.»


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