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dollar loss forecast for credit crisis
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 28 - 07 - 2008


The International Monetary Fund Monday stood by
its prediction of a 1-trillion-dollar total loss for financial
institutions stemming from the one-year-old credit crisis in the
United States - more than double the writedowns reported by banks and
mortgage lenders to date, according to dpa.
Warning that there was "no bottom" in sight for the housing
downturn at the centre of the ongoing turmoil, the IMF, in an update
of an April report on financial market stability, said banks had done
well to raise extra capital in the current environment.
Banks had already acknowledged much of their expected losses from
the financial turmoil, reporting more than 400 billion dollars in
writedowns since August 2007.
But the IMF said it saw "little reason" to change its April
estimate that total losses would reach 1 trillion dollars before the
crisis comes to an end.
"Credit risk remains elevated. Further raising of capital may be
needed," in some financial institutions, said Jaime Caruana, director
of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department.
Caruana said banks' balance sheets remained under stress and added
that he saw no significant signs that the weak housing market which
sparked the current financial turmoil was set for a turnaround.
"The (housing) indicators are still not clearly pointing to a
bottom," he said.
Plunging housing prices since early 2007 have led to more than a
million foreclosure filings by US homeowners, which in turn has led
banks and lenders to sharply devalue their mortgage-related assets.
The US mortgage crisis has ignited a wider economic downturn in
much of the industrialized world as banks have restricted credit
availability.
The IMF warned that risks to emerging economies were also rising
as developed countries have cut back on external financing. Strong
inflationary pressures from rising food and energy prices are also
testing monetary policies around the world.
"Policy trade-offs between inflation, growth and financial
stability are becoming increasingly difficult," the IMF report said.


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