up to the referendum has been peaceful. Chavez supporters and opponents held big street rallies in Caracas on Thursday. OIL RISK Jittery oil markets already spooked by events in Iraq and Russia are nervous about the referendum. Oil futures prices hit record highs over $46 a barrel on Friday due to a U.S. refinery fire and fears of supply disruptions. Ramirez made no attempt to dispel such fears. "If Venezuela enters a period of instability, well, I don't see prices having any limit," he said. He said the only guarantee of stability was Chavez. To the delight of the Venezuelan leader, many Wall Street analysts have made clear they would prefer a clear Chavez win to a contested result. "The risk is there," said Jose Cerritelli, analyst with Bear Stearns in New York. "If Chavez loses, you have a risk of hard-core 'Chavistas', perhaps a faction of the military, trying to defend themselves against a perceived witchhunt." The opposition, which groups political parties, business and union leaders and military dissidents, say there will be no witchhunt against Chavez supporters if they win power. To recall Chavez, the opposition must equal or beat the 3.76 million votes he received when reelected in 2000. But if the "No" vote is bigger, he stays in office. If Chavez loses, a presidential election will be held within 30 days. The Supreme Court still has to rule on whether he could stand in that poll. If not, he would have to wait until elections in December 2006. "Chavez's Plan B is almost as good as his Plan A. If he wins (the referendum), great. But if he loses, he doesn't plan to go away," Cerritelli said.
