styled "revolution" which has steered Venezuela firmly to the left and away from a past alliance with the United States, the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil. If Chavez loses, a presidential election will be held within 30 days. The Supreme Court still has to rule on whether he can stand again in that poll. Oil and financial markets were closely tracking the referendum amid fears an inconclusive result could trigger unrest or violence and disrupt Venezuela's oil shipments. This could raise oil prices already soaring above $45 a barrel. Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Venezuela would guarantee oil supplies whoever won Sunday's referendum. To recall Chavez, the opposition must equal or beat the 3.76 million votes he received when he was re-elected in 2000. But if the "No" vote against his recall is bigger, he stays in office. Conflicting opinion polls suggest a close race. But Chavez's ratings have risen steadily as he pursued a determined "No" campaign against his recall, overshadowing an opposition which has often appeared subdued and in disarray. --MORE 2116 Local Time 1816 GMT
