French President Nicolas Sarkozy's polarizing plans to crack down on crime and illegal immigration have struck a chord with the electorate and may help revive his flagging fortunes after months of scandal and economic decline. The measures, unveiled late last month following an upsurge in violence in the country's poor “banlieues”, foresee stripping French nationality from citizens with an immigrant background who commit crimes like killing policemen or practicing polygamy. They have been denounced by Sarkozy's leftist opponents as a cynical ploy to divert attention from a funding scandal dogging his Labour Minister Eric Woerth. Former Socialist prime minister Michel Rocard likened the proposals to Nazi-era policies under France's war-time Vichy regime. But the tough-on-crime stance that Sarkozy built his reputation on during a stint as interior minister half a decade ago and then rode to victory in the 2007 presidential election appears to be resonating again with a French public that polls show is increasingly worried about domestic crime and security. A survey by Ifop published in Le Figaro last week suggested there is overwhelming support for the measures from voters across the political spectrum and a Saturday poll in Le Parisien daily showed Sarkozy's popularity ratings, in freefall for months, inching up in the wake of the crime plans. “Can Sarkozy use this to revive his fortunes? Yes of course he can,” said Frederic Micheau of Ifop. “This is a core theme for him, one he built his reputation on and one which helped him win in 2007. It had become urgent for him to do this because he was losing momentum, losing credibility.” Steep losses for Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party and a rise in support for the far-right National Front in regional elections last March underscored the risks for the president of ignoring the core conservative voters that fuelled his run to the Elysee Palace three years ago. Many have grown disillusioned with the slow pace of economic reforms promised during the 2007 campaign. Statistics showing a steady rise in violent crimes since Sarkozy took office had also left him vulnerable on an issue seen as a traditional strength. Unsettle French left By returning the focus to security, Sarkozy hopes to win back these disillusioned constituents, shift the debate away from the Woerth scandal and unsettle the left, which apart from Rocard has been reluctant to criticize the substance of the president's crime proposals because they appear so popular. “It is not a favorable subject for the left and you can see that by how silent they have been,” said Patrick Weil, a Sorbonne historian and author of 2009 book “How to be French – Nationality in the making since 1789”. “They would prefer to keep the focus on the economy, on unemployment and on Woerth,” he said. Still, reviving his record low popularity ratings in time for a tough re-election battle in 2012 will depend on whether Sarkozy can build on the nascent gains seen over the past week and regain the momentum on other fronts, notably the economy. Data last week showed a sharp narrowing of the government budget deficit in the first half of 2010, while separate figures showed French exports at their top level in nearly two years. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter, due on Friday, could also surprise on the upside, giving the government ammunition against opponents who have heaped blame for France's economic woes on the 55-year-old president. While countries like Germany have seen unemployment fall this year as they recover from their deepest post-war recession, the French jobless rate has stuck stubbornly near 10 percent for months – a big reason for Sarkozy's poor ratings. The weak economy has in turn complicated the government's challenge in pushing through a planned increase in the retirement age to 62 from 60 – part of an overhaul of pension rules to ease the pressure on strained public finances. French labor unions have promised massive protests in September when the controversial legislation goes to parliament. Cabinet reshuffle If Sarkozy can muster the political capital to overcome union resistance on pensions, analysts say the momentum could shift against the opposition Socialists whose divisions on economic policy and on who should challenge the president in 2012 have been overshadowed by the government's woes until now. Much also depends on a cabinet reshuffle that Sarkozy has promised for October. With the shakeup, he hopes to draw a line under his past troubles and win fresh momentum heading into 2011, when he will seek political advantage from France's presidencies of the G8 and G20. Sarkozy must decide whether to keep on Prime Minister Francois Fillon, an emerging centrist rival within the UMP whose popularity ratings exceed his own. The fate of polarizing cabinet members like hard-line Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux and Woerth, who is spearheading the pension overhaul amid illegal donation allegations linked to L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt, will also be closely watched. “The reshuffle is very important,” said the Sorbonne historian Weil. “Sarkozy will try to use it to bring his troops together and build on this opening to the conservatives that we've seen with the crime crackdown.”
