Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has survived longer than many expected, and he may get the economy back on track, but doubts remain over whether he can heal the rifts that have fueled four years of political strife. Opinion polls show the popularity of the Oxford-educated premier and his shaky government is declining, while his main opponent, ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is strengthening his support base for a possible political comeback. Analysts say the exiled billionaire's popularity among the rural poor and his relentless efforts to destabilize Abhisit's fragile six-party coalition could spell more trouble for Thailand as it seeks to win back the confidence of foreign investors. “Despite all his efforts, the underlying point is Abhisit has very little, or a slim chance, to reconcile the big political differences in Thailand,” said Jacob Ramsay, a Southeast Asia analyst at Control Risks in Singapore. “He's going to fight and he'll go down trying. He must build his own reputation in contrast to Thaksin, but he has a mountain o climb.” The pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party is widely expected to win the most votes – though probably not enough to form a government on its own – when the next election takes place, most likely early next year, heightening the risk of more political turmoil. Thailand's traditional power-holders – royalist, business elites, the urban middle classes and the heavily politicized military – despise Thaksin, who fled Thailand last October before being sentenced to two years in prison for graft. It is unlikely they will accept his proxy government and potentially more damaging street protests that could ensue. Months of demonstrations by the anti-Thaksin “yellow shirts”, including a debilitating eight-day occupation of Bangkok's airports late last year, helped topple a pro-Thaksin government. The army staged a coup that ousted Thaksin in 2006 following street protests over a disputed election. Abhisit attacked “Red-shirt” supporters of Thaksin took their turn this year and their occupation of Government House led to Thailand's worst street violence in 17 years in April, which included troop deployments in Bangkok and two attacks on Abhisit's motorcade. “As far as I can see, there's still no way out,” said Chulalongkorn University political scientist, Prudhisan Jumbala. “The problems Abhisit is facing are multi-faceted and seriously deep. Economically, Abhisit needs to deliver the goods, otherwise, his future is in doubt and this crisis will worsen.” The business-friendly Abhisit, a former economics lecturer, appears to be making progress towards reviving the economy. Last week he said the worst of the recession was over. In a televised address, he said he was determined to achieve national reconciliation and predicted a return to positive annual economic growth by the fourth quarter after a 7.1 percent annual contraction in the first. His future survival, analysts say, rests on bringing unity to his squabbling Democrat-led government, releasing $42 billion worth of stimulus measures and delivering on his populist pledges to make a dent in Thaksin's rural support base. However, given the public's lukewarm reception of the soft-spoken veteran lead of the Democrat Party, and the popularity of Thaksin, who won landslide election victories in 2001 and 2005, some say the odds are stacked up against Abhisit. “The rural masses will not change their loyalty even when those stimulus projects start to take shape,” said Boonyakiat Karawekphan, a politics lecturer at Ramkamhaeng University. “We may enter another vicious circle. A Thaksin-backed party may win the election but without a clear majority.” Analysts say Abhisit's efforts to reform the constitution to heal the social rifts are a long way from fruition and he continues to suffer attacks from inside and outside his coalition, hampering his ability to govern. Furthermore, “red shirt” plans to submit a petition calling for a royal pardon for Thaksin have raised fears of renewed violence, with mounting anger over the clemency plea, which the “red shirts” say has five million signatories. “We have another round of intensifying confrontation and brinkmanship, with Thaksin able to show he has mass support while his opponents play elite politics,” said Thai political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak. “It's boiling, simmering and brewing; every now and then it blows up. It gets taken to a new level every time, and if a Thaksin nominee government comes back, it could happen all over again.”
