Just as he reached out in peace to the Arab and Muslim world – notably by his great speech in Cairo on June 4 – so President Barack Obama has now reached out in friendship to Russia, America's former global adversary. Forging a new bilateral relationship with Moscow, free from the mutual suspicions and hostile manoeuvres of the Cold War, was the prime object of his visit to Russia from 6 to 8 July. With both Russia and the Muslim World, Obama must be given the credit of having taken the initiative, of having made the first move. He grasped – and appears firmly to believe – that reconciliation with these two centres of grievance and potential hostility is an essential precondition for America to be able to deal successfully with the unfinished wars, the terrorist threats, the dangers of nuclear proliferation, and even the financial meltdown which now plague America and the planet– indeed with the whole bitter legacy of the Bush years. Cold warriors in both Washington and Moscow may huff and puff, and refuse to believe that the adversarial relationship is finally over, but the simple truth is that far more unites the two powers than divides them. Of all their common ambitions, the most urgent – and the noblest – is to move, modestly perhaps but steadily, towards the goal of nuclear disarmament. Here, too, it was Obama who set the pace, calling in his speech in Prague on 5 April for a ‘nuclear-free world.' The most important agreement signed in Moscow this week was the framework document on arms control which, once the negotiators finish their work over the coming months, will replace the 1991 START treaty, which expires in December. Strategic warheads on each side are to be cut to between 1,500 and 1,675, and delivery vehicles (land-based and submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as bombers) to between 500 and 1,100. The cuts will be accompanied by an extended verification system, so as to create mutual confidence. This is only the beginning. A still more far-reaching agreement, to be negotiated next year, will aim at making even deeper cuts in American and Russian nuclear arsenals. Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Medvedev understand that, only by setting an example – only by setting the world on a path to eliminate nuclear weapons altogether – can they hope to persuade North Korea and Iran to abandon whatever military nuclear ambitions they may have. Checking nuclear proliferation – and thereby saving the world from potential disaster – means tightening the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This includes persuading non-signatories like India, Pakistan and Israel to join the treaty – and face inspections – and preventing existing signatories from abandoning it. In pursuit of his goal of a nuclear- free world, Obama has pledged to seek ratification by the US Senate of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which would bring an end to the testing and development of new weapons – a major step towards nuclear disarmament. The Treaty was rejected by the Senate in 1999, and it will not be easy for him to assemble the two-thirds majority necessary to vote it into law. Apart from common objectives, the US and Russia have individual goals, for which each needs the other's help. Russia wants the United States to recognize that it has a ‘privileged' sphere of influence in territories once part of the former Soviet Union, notably in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Accordingly, it is adamantly opposed to the eastward extension of NATO to Georgia and the Ukraine – as proposed by the former US administration of George W Bush – and is equally opposed to another of Bush's projects, the placing of anti-missile defence batteries and radar detection systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. Bush claimed these weapons were directed against Iran, whereas Moscow saw them, with some justification, as directed against itself. The United States, in turn, wants Russia's help in rooting out Al-Qaeda, defeating the Taleban and stabilizing Afghanistan – the major war which Obama is determined to win. This week, the Russians agreed to allow up to 10 US planes a day to fly through Russian airspace transporting troops, weapons and supplies to the war. Equally important for Washington is Russian help in finding a solution to Iran's nuclear program. Neither country wants to see Tehran acquire nuclear weapons, but their approach is different. Russia has close economic and strategic ties with Iran, whereas the US has been hostile to Iran for the past three decades. Moscow understands that if Iran is to be persuaded to compromise on its nuclear program, its regional importance will have to be recognized and its security guaranteed. Washington understands that Iran's nuclear ambitions will have to be contained, one way or another, if Israel is ever to be persuaded to allow the emergence of a Palestinian state. Fortunately, both powers are at one in seeking a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict on the basis of a two-state solution. But the United States – and its Israeli ally – may not be over-enthusiastic about holding an international conference on the Middle East in Moscow before the end of the year. The difficult US-Israeli negotiations will need to make considerable progress before either party will wish to face the full glare of the international community. There are many other subjects on which Washington and Moscow are prepared to cooperate, such as fighting terrorism and drug trafficking. Military-to-military contacts, suspended after the war in Georgia last August, are due to be resumed. But the dust from that conflict has still not fully settled. Among the intangibles are Russia's evident demand to be treated with the respect and equality due to a great power – or at least a power which was once great and which aspires to be great again. For its part, the United States is under pressure from opinion at home – and from democrats and civil rights activists across the world – to press Russia on the subject of freedom and the rule of law. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man and an opponent of the Kremlin, was arrested and jailed for fraud six years ago. He is now being put back on trial, in an evident attempt to keep him behind bars. Obama is under pressure to raise his case with the Russian authorities. He is well aware, however, of the danger of seeming to interfere in Russia's legal processes. All in all, Obama's Moscow visit was a success – even if some sensitive topics were swept under the carpet. The US-Russian bilateral relationship is off to a good start, but much hard work remains to be done in the coming months and years.
