Bissau's interim leader must overcome a culture of military intervention and regional politics corrupted by drugs if he is to realize hopes for a fresh start after the president and his main rival were killed. The assassination of the military chief in a sophisticated bomb attack, which soldiers avenged by killing the president, has raised questions over external influences in the tiny country in West Africa, a region targeted by powerful Latin American drug-smuggling gangs. General Batista Tagme Na Wai and President Joao Bernardo Vieira, both central to years of turmoil since independence from Portugal and to more recent allegations of state complicity in cocaine smuggling, died within hours of each other this week. Fears of a coup in Bissau subsided after National Assembly speaker Raimundo Pereira was sworn in as president on Tuesday. “I suspect there will be a constitutional transition,” said International Crisis Group regional director Richard Moncrieff. “The question is to what extent the military will interfere. (Vieira's assassination) confirms the military's role in power. That is a negative thing and that has to stop,” Moncrieff added. A hard-fought guerrilla war leading to Guinea-Bissau's 1973 declaration of independence produced a proud army and some acceptance of the military's role in politics. But a series of coups, mutinies and, more recently, involvement in the drug trade have tarnished its image and destabilized the country despite European Union-led reform efforts. Regional diplomats descended on Bissau to support the transition, which is meant to end with elections within 60 days. With Pereira now in power, pressure will mount to reform and reduce a top-heavy military, which has 3,000 officers in a force of 4,500. But few officers want to retire to civilian life in a nation racked by poverty, whose main export is cashew nuts. Optimists cite as reasons for hope the army's public commitment to respect the constitution and the end of the intense Vieira-Na Wai rivalry, which involved torture and the killing of family members and was central to the nation's power struggles. “This is no coup d'etat. This was a problem between two people and that has now been solved ... I think this will help provide a new start,” said one diplomat. Outside influences Concern was high after recent events in neighbouring Guinea, where military officers took power when long-standing President Lansana Conte, a close ally of Vieira, died in December. The junta there has countered criticism of its coup by unravelling a network of senior officials, including the late president's close family members, who have admitted taking thousands of dollars in bribes from Latin American drug dealers. The United Nations has long warned of the likelihood of the drug trade further destabilizing a string of weak, corrupt West African nations through which hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cocaine pass en route from Latin America to Europe. Senegal's foreign minister called for an international investigation into the Bissau killings, saying the use of a timed bomb to blow up the army headquarters followed by the cold-blooded execution of a head of state was unprecedented in the region. Narcotics experts agreed, saying the killing was clinical by local standards, where previous clashes between Vieira and Na Wai loyalists have involved little more than gunmen spraying bullets at each other, and pointed to external influences. A UN spokesman said it was too early to made a direct link but others are more categoric about the threat. “The assassination reflects also Guinea-Bissau's increasing capitulation to international drug-trafficking cartels,” Jonas Horner, Africa Associate at the Eurasia Group, said. Parliamentary elections held late last year were deemed a success, offering signs of progress, but they were followed by a series of attacks that culminated in this week's assassinations. As a result, hopes for rapid and sustained change in the tiny, impoverished nation are tempered. “The problems of Guinea-Bissau are rooted in corruption and the manipulation of politics and the military ... it's not just Tagme (Na Wai) or Vieira,” said Mario Sa Gomes, an exiled human rights activist and drug investigator, from Paris. “Poor soldiers have become drunk with power and money ... They will be replaced.”
