Even as, albeit reluctantly, the EU squares up to Russia over its seizure of Crimea which was followed by military intervention in eastern Ukraine, a member state has just signed a deal for the Russian navy to use its ports. On the face of it, Brussels may persuade itself that this is a relatively innocent arrangement. Moscow's navy has been using Cypriot ports for some years to bunker fuel tanks and replenish essential supplies. It has been good for local business. Nor is there any suggestion that the Russians will start construction of a naval base on the island as a potential replacement for its extensive Tartus facility in Syria, its only Mediterranean naval base.
There is also talk of a deal at some point for the Russian air force to use a Cypriot aerodrome. When they gave up their role as the occupying colonial power, the British were granted the right to have two sovereign bases on the island, which they still maintain. It is not expected that the Russians will be seeking to build anything like the British presence.
So why should the Europeans and the Americans be disturbed by this development? There seem to be two reasons for concern. The first is the timing. Moscow is already wooing EU states Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, while it uses threatening behavior toward the vulnerable Baltic States. To drive the thin end of yet another wedge into Brussels' unimpressive attempts at unity will please Moscow every bit as much as it vexes Washington. In the great chess game of superpower politics, Russia has just advanced another clever pawn.
The second reason to worry is the unlikely Russian explanation for the naval base. It is to combat “piracy and terrorism”. The eastern Mediterranean is not known for piratical behavior. Terrorism, however, it does have, most particularly in Syria where, with Moscow's unstinting support, the Assad regime has been able to terrorize its own people. And thanks to the Russian support of Assad, the ground was cleared for the upsurge of the so-called Islamic State. It is not expected that the Russian military will be intervening to end Assad's terror. Nor does it seem remotely likely that the Kremlin will be seeking to join the coalition air campaign against IS targets.
Therefore, there is no obvious genuine reason for the Russians to be wanting to shelter parts of their Black Sea fleet on an EU island.
And then there are the alarmingly soothing words of President Vladimir Putin. His country's friendly ties with the Cypriot government were not aimed at anyone, he purred. He could not see why they should be causing worries anywhere.
The real reason that the Greek Cypriot government has taken up this offer is probably financial. In the last 20 years, Nicosia has become an offshore banking center for Russia. The near collapse of the Cypriot financial system in 2013 required a €10 billion bailout by the EU and IMF in return for a series of emergency measures, including a one-off levy on all large deposits, which also hit Russian depositors. This heavy hit has not stopped the flow of money from Russia. Indeed, it appears to have increased. The Republic of Cyprus, therefore, looms large in Moscow's calculations, not simply as a strategic snub to Washington and Brussels, but also as a bolt-hole for the money of the super-rich oligarchs who dance attendance around Vladimir Putin. It seems as though it is worth sending a gunboat to protect all that cash.
