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Ukraine: The blinking game
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 03 - 03 - 2014


Hussein Shobokshi
So now basically Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine to protect Russia's interests, and the world simply has to deal with it. Putin's move, as it is known by now, comes after his close ally Viktor Yanukovych was toppled in a popular uprising that led to him to flee the country to Russia.
Crimea, the part of Ukraine which is currently under the spotlight and has a predominantly ethnic Russian population, as well as a huge Russian military base and voices of “independence”, “separation” and “unity with our Russian motherland”, has been bursting all of a sudden in response to the events that took place in the Ukrainian capital Kiev, while the world remains in shock and in complete puzzlement on how to properly respond to the Russian aggression.
The US and its western allies, as expected, immediately voiced their utter condemnation and sent a strong message to the Russian leadership to immediately withdraw from the Ukraine. The Chinese, however, remained silent without a comment on the big news item. If Russia “gets away with it”, as the invasion is being popularly referred to, and manages to “take back Crimea” to Russian hands, it could create a modern day phenomena and a president that will open up Pandora box.
Imagine a scenario that would have China “invade” Taiwan to take it back to the Chinese motherland or Syria to take back Lebanon or Argentina to take back the Falklands (again!), or Iraq invading Kuwait (again!); the examples are simply endless.
The Russians are very hungry to regain its lost glories. It is still feeling the great pain of its loss from the fall of its Czarist Empire and then the loss of its vast empire, known once as the Soviet Union. With Putin at the helm, the Russians are keen on regaining some of that lost pride; there is a big emphasis on highlighting the “nationalistic” tone in all of the Russian policies. That tone of nationalism, however, has switched to “bulliness”, as Putin is pushing his luck against a perceived weak, timid and reluctant President Obama.
A case in point was the fiasco that took place in Syria and the failure of Obama to deliver on his threat to punish Bashar Al-Assad for his use of chemical warfare against his people. Putin saw “something” there and decided to flex his political and military muscles. Putin's appetite might not end there. There could be other “nationalistic” arguments to be made in Belarus and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, for example, as they all have signified Russian ethnicity and great Russian influence in trade and security.
The world will hold its breadth and see who will blink this time. This is no Bay of Pigs, this is very serious!


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