ALGIERS — Ill-health may force veteran Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, now in hospital in Paris, to hasten his departure from power, plunging a youthful, restless nation into an uncertain political transition. Algeria, led by Bouteflika since 1999, has for decades drawn its presidents from an aging cohort of men who won their spurs in the bitter 1954-62 independence war with France. Bouteflika, 76, was flown to the French capital Saturday for treatment in a military hospital after suffering what state media said was a minor stroke that caused no permanent damage. Algerians have long speculated about the health of their president, who had been widely tipped to seek a fourth term in 2014. When Bouteflika had surgery in France in 2005, they were told it was for a stomach ulcer. US Embassy cables leaked last year suggested he had in fact survived a bout of cancer. Bouteflika eased Algeria out of the horrors of its civil war in the 1990s when an estimated 200,000 people were killed in a struggle between the security forces and militants. The secular generals no longer openly call the shots, but few know where real power resides in an opaque system where an elected president cohabits with a shadowy security elite. Few of Algeria's 36 million people, over 70 percent of whom are aged under 30, can remember the independence struggle from which their leaders draw legitimacy and many thirst for change. “We must pass the torch to a new generation of leaders, the (era of) revolutionary legitimacy is over,” said Hichem Aboud, a political writer and editor of “Mon Journal”. “I have no doubt that Bouteflika will not go for another term, he simply cannot do the job because he is too tired.” Algeria's cautious power-brokers may accept that younger faces are needed, but they are unlikely to allow any swift or dramatic political reform that might risk their own interests or reopen wounds in a country traumatized by its violent past. Despite persistent social unrest, Algeria has so far avoided the kind of revolt that has ousted Arab rulers in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya since 2011. Syria's bitter conflict only reinforces the aversion of many Algerians to going down that path. Geoff Porter, head of North Africa Risk Consulting, said Algerians mostly wanted a smooth, transparent transition. “Yes, they want a candidate who has the vitality and energy to address Algeria's difficult problems ... but they also want someone who will incrementally transform the political system rather than entirely disrupt it,” he said. Algerians were aware, Porter said, that only an established insider would have the political capital, as well as the alliances and networks, to bring about change within the system. If and when Bouteflika departs, competition for his job could upset a delicate balance of power within the ruling elite. Former prime minister Ahmed Benbitour, 67, is the only declared candidate in the presidential election due in less than a year. Others may throw their hats in the ring only when Bouteflika, who took power in 1999, makes his intentions clear. Among potential candidates is technocrat Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal, 65, seen as a man of consensus, and another former premier, Mouloud Hamrouche, 70, a reformist whose parents were killed during the independence war. He might get the support of Hocine Ait Ahmed, an icon of Algeria's revolution. — Reuters
