Algeria's parliamentary elections on May 10 may provide the country with a more peaceful path to its own Arab Spring. Algeria has spent too long on the edge of the Arab world, isolated by its socialist command economy and run by military-backed governments that when they have not fixed electoral results have simply ignored the outcome. That was the case in 1992 and it plunged the country into a long and vicious civil war in which at least 200,000 people perished. Given what has happened, there is, it has to be said, a widespread belief that little will be changed by the elections in which 42 different political parties are battling for the 389 parliamentary seats. The widely expected outcome is that the main winners will be the two parties that back the government of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and three Islamist parties that have formed an alliance. Many expect the vote will be rigged in favor of the government. And in any event, Algeria's parliament is a relatively powerless institution. The cynicism of many Algerians was well demonstrated by the mere 35 percent of voters who bothered to turn out in the 2007 elections. It is therefore hardly surprising that the president has been urging electors to participate this time in massive numbers. He has also invited EU monitors to assess the fairness of the process. Assuming the election is not rigged, the composition of the new parliament will be important. Even if as a body, it is toothless, the new faces that will take their seats in its chamber are likely to bring with them demands for change; most urgently in terms of economic direction but, in the longer term, in terms of power structures. Algeria simply cannot continue with redundant and ruinous state socialism. Since throwing off French rule, hundreds of billions of dollars earned by the state oil monopoly Sonatrach have been poured into poorly-run, under-capitalized and serially-loss-making state-owned enterprises. Run by placemen and staffed by underpaid and demotivated workers, the majority of these national businesses have long been a scandal of waste and ineptitude. However, to break up the state companies and introduce extensive free market mechanisms would be to destroy the patronage system on which successive governments have relied. Can it really be expected that Algeria's entrenched elite will abandon their power and privilege? Many Algerians think not. Yet the lessons of the Arab Spring are clear. The rise of moderate Islamist politicians in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and very probably next month in Libya, is creating a new mood of hope and a new dynamism, both of which are pitifully short among Algerians. They should therefore vote and in great numbers because the new parliament itself can be an overwhelming demand for change. And there is another very good reason to fill in a ballot paper on May 10. Al-Qaeda-linked leaders have demanded a poll boycott. A very large turnout will also demonstrate the contempt in which the great majority of Algerians hold these bigoted thugs. __
