RIYADH — The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) expects that most regions of Saudi Arabia will witness rainfall higher than average by 50-60% during the fall season. This has been revealed in NCM's weather forecast for fall 2023. The chance of rain is 50% to 60% higher than average during the fall, which will include the months of September, October and November. The regions of Al-Sharqiyah, the Northern Borders, Al-Qassim, Hail, Al-Jouf, Tabuk, Madinah and parts of the Riyadh and Makkah regions will likely receive abundant rain. The higher-than-average rainfall in those regions will occur especially in October and November, NCM said. While the rainfall rate will be around average in the rest of the Kingdom's regions, the report indicated, clarifying that the rainfall in September will be 40% less than its average in the Jazan region and parts of the Najran region. The report forecasts extreme and very severe cases of heavy rains in Saudi Arabia but explains that such cases do not appear in the long-term climate models and can be predicted through short-term forecasts issued by the NCM. It cited cases of severe rainfall (extreme to very extreme) in Saudi Arabia between 1985 and 2022, noting that the years 1997 and 2018 were the years the most exposed to extremely wet weather. During the historical peak for fall rain, the year 1997 witnessed 21 instances of heavy rain while 2018 witnessed 17 instances. As for the very extreme cases, 2018 is the year that witnessed the highest number of cases, followed by the years 5 cases in 1997 and 3 in 2000. NCM said since 2007 the number of recurrences of extreme cases of rain has increased, but there is no difference in very extreme cases. As for surface temperature forecasts during the fall season, NCM said that the forecasts indicate that it will rise with a high probability of up to 80% in all regions of the Kingdom, where it will be higher than the average by two degrees in the Riyadh and Najran regions, while it reaches a degree and a half higher in most regions of Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that this year's summer season will end astronomically on Friday, September 22, according to the National Center of Meteorology. Hussain Al-Qahtani, spokesman of NCM, told Okaz/Saudi Gazette that temperatures would fall gradually over the coming days in most regions of the Kingdom and the autumn season, which is set to begin after 24 days, will be a rainy season during this year.
