The Indian air strikes on Pakistan are an unacceptable escalation in the confrontation between these two nuclear-armed powers over Kashmir. They are also particularly disappointing given the efforts last week of Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman to defuse the rising tensions between the two countries. The assault by Indian warplanes was on what Delhi says was a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) group in Balakot. While the Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale told a news conference there were heavy casualties, Islamabad reported no one had been killed or injured but that the attackers had dropped their bombs on open ground and fled when Pakistani fighters were scrambled to intercept them. Pakistan's army spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor produced photographs to back up this contention. Whatever the truth, the fact is that India sent military aircraft into Pakistani airspace for the first time since the open conflict of 1971. The danger this now poses for relations between the two states is frighteningly clear. It was perhaps significant that shortly after the attacks went in, Indian premier Narendra Modi was addressing a rally in Rajasthan ahead of elections at the end of May. Though he did not refer directly to what had happened, his speech was notably combative. He told the jubilant crowds that he understood their enthusiasm and energy adding: "Today is a day we bow before our heroes". This was probably a reference not just to the air force personnel who had taken part in the attack on Pakistan but also to the 46 Indian paramilitary police who perished in a suicide bombing at Pulwama, the Indian-occupied portion of Kashmir. This was the highest single death toll among Indian security forces in several decades. JeM was quick to claim responsibility. But there are those who are concerned that this slaughter among Indian security forces comes at a convenient moment for Modi and his right-wing Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In recent months the party's support has declined sharply with the rival Congress Party besting it in state elections. There is discontent with the BJP, which swept to power in 2014 on promises of economic and social reform. Many of those promises remain unfulfilled. Moreover, the Modi administration is seen to have undermined the independence of key institutions, not least the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, two of whose governors were ousted by Modi because they refused to toe the government's financial line. The idea that Delhi could have been in any way complicit in the Pulwama massacre is abhorrent. But no less acceptable is the notion that Modi should seek to exploit it and what he will claim is his strong, uncompromising response, for electoral purposes. There is far more at stake here than the future of the BJP at the ballot box. At clear and sudden risk is the safety and security not just of two great countries but the whole region. Wise heads must prevail and immediate steps be taken to de-escalate this extremely risky confrontation. It cannot be doubted that the Kingdom will now seek to play its part as an honest broker, while it seems likely that the wider international community, perhaps through the United Nations, will also seek to intervene. At all costs, swords must be sheathed and urgent talks take place to defuse this most alarming confrontation.
