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Tragic toll
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 05 - 01 - 2013

The number of deaths in Syria since its uprising began - 60,000 in 21 months - is not only astonishing but much higher than the estimate given by anti-regime rebels. The rebels say 45,000, a third less than what the UN has announced. In most countries it's usually the other way around with the rebel count, which is normally greatly overstated for publicity's sake, being far higher than the official figure. A neutral observer like the UN will not exaggerate statistics, which makes the death toll in Syria horrifying. And not likely to stop soon. If anything, the pace of killing has accelerated. Monthly death tolls in summer 2011 were around 1,000. A year later, they had reached about 5,000 per month.
Although the data did not distinguish between soldiers, rebels and civilians, just a cursory reading of daily news bulletins of those killed in Syria reveals the vast majority to be innocent civilians, those who usually suffer the most from such conflicts.
The conflict has also created a massive influx of refugees to neighboring countries. The UN report put those who have fled Syria at about half a million, the bulk trudging to Turkey, stretching the resources of that neighbor. Many more are displaced inside Syria. The UN believes the number of refugees could top a million this year.
The Syrian government keeps the body count high by cracking down on protests while rebel groups as well have killed unjustifiably. Acts by both sides could be considered war crimes. The conflict is not being helped by the little or no help from the outside world which monitors the situation closely but like any bystander has not shown the willingness to come to the rescue, waiting instead for the combatants and fate to decide the final outcome. Some sort of a process is under way, as the US tries to influence a government in exile. Many opposition figures gathering in Qatar or Turkey are trying to determine what a future government would look like. However, these efforts have not paid off, given the number of those killed, injured and displaced.
The rebels, who have recently targeted air bases, have the momentum these days, and Moscow, Syria's staunch ally, has come out with the surprising public pronouncement that Bashar Al-Assad is doomed. However, the Syrian dictator remains steadfast, brushing off demands from the US and many European and Arab nations to step down.
The UN forecast that thousands more could die or be injured is a warning that danger could continue even after the war. The existing catastrophe could be compounded by the instability that will surely follow the war's end. Armed groups who win the rebellion will struggle for some degree of control over territory, creating a dangerous security vacuum.
Few people thought the revolt in Syria would get this far. The conflict began in March 2011 with peaceful protests calling for political change evolving into a full-scale civil war. Syria is the only Arab Spring country with such a high death toll. That 60,000 figure, however, is only producing a desensitized world which reacts with words, not deeds.


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