OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — Israel once tried to kill Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in a botched assassination attempt on the streets of the Jordanian capital, Amman. Fifteen years later, it is starting to view him in a slightly different light and Israeli analysts say he might yet prove the man who can open a dialogue between the Palestinian Islamist movement and the Jewish state. Meshaal is due to make his first visit to the Gaza Strip on Friday for a two-day stay to join celebrations for Hamas's 25th anniversary and to take part in what the militant group says will be a victory rally after its recent conflict with Israel. Israeli leaders have an alternative view of the eight-day conflagration, which ended in a ceasefire. They say they dealt Hamas a sharp blow which should deter rocket fire out of the small coastal territory for many months to come. They also believe the fighting distanced Hamas further from Shi'ite Iran's sphere of influence and put it squarely in the camp of Sunni Muslim powers Qatar and Egypt — with Meshaal, who has lived in exile from his native West Bank for 45 of his 56 years, the key player in this evolving regional shift. “From Israel's point of view, Khaled Meshaal now plays a more positive role,” said Shlomo Brom, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an independent research institute based in Tel Aviv. “Generally speaking, Hamas is divided into two factions, the Gaza faction and the external faction. There is a debate between them on several levels, and Meshaal's external faction is much more moderate. This is why he is of interest to Israel.” No cabinet minister in Israel would call Meshaal a moderate, at least not in public. To Israelis, Hamas is synonymous with suicide bombings and rocket fire. It is classed by Israel and its Western allies as a terrorist group and widely condemned for refusing to renounce violence and recognize Israel. But in recent years Meshaal has adopted a more nuanced stance, backing the idea of a long-term truce in return for a withdrawal to the lines established ahead of the 1967 war, when Israel seized East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza Strip. “Hamas's external leadership is trying to leave the Iranian axis. This is remarkable, but it won't be easy because they are still dependent on Iranian arms,” said INSS research fellow Yoel Guzansky. “In the end, it could be good for Israel.” The abrupt departure from Syria initially weakened Meshaal within Hamas. His relations with Damascus and Tehran had made him an essential linchpin, but with those links damaged or broken, the Gaza leaders started to assert their authority. Hamas's internal dynamics are shrouded in secrecy, but those in Gaza have enjoyed more influence since they managed to seize control of the isolated enclave in 2007 after fighting with the allies of President Mahmoud Abbas. He exercises only limited Palestinian self-government in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. A senior Israeli official, who declined to be named, said he was not convinced that Meshaal had done enough to restore his credibility within Hamas as undisputed leader. “There is a power struggle going on,” he said. “But they are keeping it hidden.” Netanyahu played an accidental but important role in establishing Meshaal's militant credentials when he ordered Mossad agents to kill him in 1997 in retaliation for a Jerusalem market bombing that killed 16 people and was blamed on Hamas. The agents were caught by Jordanian police after injecting Meshaal with poison in the street; Netanyahu, in his first term as premier, was forced to hand over the antidote and the incident turned the middle-aged former schoolteacher into a hero of the Palestinian resistance. “In a movement like Hamas, being the target of a political assassination is a medal of honor, and he wore that medal on his chest,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States who teaches at Tel Aviv University. — Reuters
