Peace still seems a long way away in Syria, but even a temporary halt to hostilities could make a difference, because it just might convince both sides of the madness of this civil war, in which it seems at present that no one except the undertakers can win. UN and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has suggested that the fighting stop during Eid Al-Adha. Both the Assad regime and the rebels are said to be considering the proposal. Unfortunately, the fact that each side has indicated their willingness to think about a ceasefire may actually serve to make it less likely. The tragic reality might be that both the government and the rebels will suspect that a readiness to suspend hostilities indicates that the other side is in trouble and in need of the chance to replenish and reorganize. It has to be certain that if a ceasefire does come into effect, that is precisely what the Assad regime and the rebels will each try to do. That, however, is less important than the fact that if the guns do indeed fall silent on October 25, even if the plan is that after the holiday the conflict will resume, both sides have the opportunity to reconsider the point of further conflict. Assad and his people must have realized by now that they cannot destroy the rebels. They have already lost control of large areas of Syria. They face a war of attrition in which thousands more will join the 30,000 who already lie beneath the ground. But if the guns fall silent even for the few days that are normally a time of celebrations and family for Syrians, maybe the futility of resisting the popular uprising will be driven home if not on Assad and his clique, at least on his beleaguered supporters. There is, however, a danger that even if a truce is agreed by the rebels, within the disparate ranks of the Free Syrian Army some commanders will see it as an opportunity to launch surprise attacks. More disturbingly, the Al-Qaeda elements, the majority of them foreign fighters who have infiltrated the rebel ranks, will see the ceasefire as something to be targeted rather than a chance of peace that needs to be embraced. With the rebels unwilling or unable to root out the fanatics in their midst, it has to be almost certain that these people will seek to dishonor any deal, however temporary. Thus far has Syria sunk into chaos because of the regime's refusal to treat seriously with the opposition, preferring to try to crush it by main force, as it has done in the past. Nevertheless, if both sides agree a deal, even one that Al-Qaeda bigots seek to blow apart, Lakhdar Brahimi will actually have made a breakthrough. So delicate and difficult have any negotiations become that progress has now to be measured in millimeters rather than miles. But even such tiny advances have to count. If he can indeed broker the Eid ceasefire, Brahimi will have given himself some small leverage with both the rebels and the regime. It will be a fragile lever for sure, not one on which he could exert any great force, but it could be the start on the road back to peace, a route which has until now eluded all others, not least former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan.
